The evidence that upward mobility is
out of reach for most low-income kids in America,
particularly in certain areas, keeps building. Over the past 40 years, research by Raj Chetty and coauthors suggests, declining racial segregation and high school dropout rates—factors that should have increased mobility—were in competition with rising income inequality and single motherhood—factors that work against mobility. But a new study adds in another factor that is correlated with kids from low-income families moving up: unions.
According to the study by Richard Freeman, Eunice Han, David Madland, and Brendan V. Duke of Harvard, Wellesley, and the Center for American Progress, unions are linked in a few ways with improved outcomes for kids:
- Areas with higher union membership demonstrate more mobility for low-income children. Using Chetty and others’ data, we* find that low-income children rise higher in the income rankings when they grow up in areas with high-union membership. [...] This relationship between unions and the mobility of low-income children is at least as strong as the relationship between mobility and high school dropout rates—a factor that is generally recognized as one of the most important correlates of economic mobility. Indeed, union density is one of the strongest predictors of an area’s mobility. Furthermore, unions remain a significant predictor of economic mobility even after one controls for several variables including race, types of industries, inequality, and more.
- Areas with higher union membership have more mobility as measured by all children’s incomes. We also measure the geographic relationship between union membership and another measure of mobility: the income of all children who grew up in an area after controlling for their parents’ incomes. According to our findings, a 10 percentage point increase in union density is associated with a 4.5 percent increase in the income of an area’s children. [...]
- Children who grow up in union households have better outcomes. Using a different dataset, we match parents and children to compare the outcomes of children who grew up in otherwise similar union and nonunion households. The findings show that children growing up in union households tend to have better outcomes than children who grew up in nonunion households, especially when the parents are low skilled. For example, children of non-college-educated fathers earn 28 percent more if their father was in a labor union. This analysis helps provide evidence suggesting a link between unions and economic mobility.
The study only shows correlation, not causation, so other factors that are associated with unions may be the ultimate cause, but the correlation sure is interesting, isn't it? Particularly since Republicans keep telling us how bad unions are for everyone. Even if unions aren't causing higher mobility (and they may be; we just can't tell from the available data), they sure aren't getting in the way. That fits with research finding that
declining union membership contributes to rising income inequality.