Greg Sargent:
Here is what the new initiative does: It clarifies which gun-sellers are supposed to obtain a federal firearms license. Since guns sold by licensed dealers are subject to federal background checks, and guns sold by private sellers are not, this change, by extension, would also clarify which additional gun sales are subject to background checks. Gun reformers believe that some private sellers are selling guns regularly in a manner that allows more gun sales to elude background checks and to slip into the hands of prohibited buyers. This clarification would attempt to prevent that.
Here is the policy challenge: The difficulty is how to go about clarifying which additional private gun sellers should obtain licenses and conduct background checks on sales. Current law says that those who are “engaged in the business” of selling firearms, “with the principle objective of livelihood and profit,” are required to get a license, and thus to run checks. But the law excludes those who make “occasional” sales or sell their personal firearms collections.
Lauren French:
Congressional Republicans have widely condemned President Barack Obama’s new executive orders on firearms, but for all the criticism there's little chance this GOP-controlled Congress can block the president's latest gun control moves.
A key problem: After congressional leaders cleared the decks ahead of the 2016 elections, there are no must-pass bills looming that Republicans could use as vehicles to force Democrats to undo Obama's actions. Furthermore, Senate Democrats would likely block any movement in the upper chamber on individual bills. And any stand-alone legislation that managed to pass the House and Senate would surely be vetoed by Obama.
Ron Fournier:
Among the good people in the autism community, there is a clear and sometimes bitter divide. Some advocates focus on research into prevention and cures. Others clamor for more adult services that allow autistic people to thrive and shine with their unique wiring.
Perhaps recognizing that it takes a village to advance the cause of people who think differently, Hillary Clinton on Tuesday proposed a sweeping autism agenda that addresses the concerns of both camps.
The Democratic presidential front-runner wants new services, rights protections, and employment opportunities for adults with autism, and called for a first-ever U.S. study of adult autism prevalence and needs—all at the urging of Autistic Self Advocacy Network, a nonprofit run by and for autistic people.
She also called for a “significant increase” in government funding for research into autism, the primary focus of some advocates. Autism Speaks has launched a groundbreaking genome sequencing program in hopes of improving diagnosis and treatment of autism. The group also offers tool kits that help autistic people live independently, and has built a website (created by a person with autism) that matches employers with potential employees on the spectrum.
Ezra Klein:
Here's what I think Donald Trump's loss will look like
1) On Monday, Politico's Mike Allen dropped a "TRUTH BOMB" — caps lock his — on the GOP.
2) Here's the bomb: "For all you Republicans and pundits who are still talking about a Cruz-Rubio final, here’s a wake-up data point: It’s been 168 days since Trump took a big lead in national polling, and he has widened his margin by 10 points since then. It’s 28 days to Iowa, 36 days to New Hampshire, 47 days to South Carolina, 50 days to Nevada and 57 days to the SEC primary. If you think voters will suddenly get serious — and that Trump is a ‘lampshade candidate’ who’ll eventually wear out his welcome — you’re running out of time to be right. But at least it’s 309 days to Election Day."
3) Boom!
4) Allen's reality check is completely correct. But I still don't believe Trump will win the Republican primary. Which raises an obvious question: How does Donald Trump lose? What does it look like? What's the chain of events?
SacBee:
Ted Cruz has surged to a statistical tie with Donald Trump among Republicans in California, while Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have tumbled in this late-voting state, according to a new poll.
The Field Poll, released Tuesday, reflects Cruz’s momentum nationally in the crowded Republican presidential field. While the Texas senator lags behind Trump in New Hampshire and national polls, he has pushed ahead in Iowa, which holds its first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1.
The Field poll is to CA what a Selzer/DMR poll is to IA (though CA votes in June, so things can change.)
Norm Ornstein re Trump and Trumpism:
The willful suspension of disbelief by so many political professionals and analysts had multiple roots. One part was a deep belief that history rules—since rogue and inexperienced candidates had always faltered before, it followed that it would happen again. Another was that nothing has changed in a meaningful way in American politics—there has not been real polarization, only natural “sorting,” and the establishment will rule, as it always does. A third was that there are certain characteristics expected of a president—prudence, civility, expertise—that would eventually cause Trump and the other outsiders like Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina to fall by the wayside.
Those roots remain resilient in the punditocracy and political community. They were and are wrong.
Guardian:
Federal authorities are planning to cut off the power of the wildlife refuge in Oregon that has been taken over by militia, exposing the armed occupiers to sub-zero temperatures in an effort to flush them out.
Armed militants will begin their third day at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, a remote federal outpost in eastern Oregon, on Tuesday, and have vowed to remain for months in protest over the treatment of two local cattle ranchers.
A federal government official told the Guardian that authorities were planning on Monday to cut the power at the refuge.
“It’s in the middle of nowhere,” said the official, who is based in Washington, DC, and has knowledge of the planned response to the militia. “And it’s flat-ass cold up there.”
Eugene Robinson:
What do you think the response would be if a bunch of black people, filled with rage and armed to the teeth, took over a federal government installation and defied officials to kick them out? I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be wait-and-see.
Probably more like point-and-shoot.