Last December 6, HuffPost’s Pollster average showed that President Obama’s job approval rating had hit a low not seen for twelve months. Eight weeks ago, he was at minus-7, (51.2 percent disapprove, 44.2 percent approve). Now, however, he sits at minus-3.5—his best numbers since July 2, 2013. That’s a year and a half ago.
And it’s not like there’s been a dearth of polls. Pollster counts more than fifty in the past two months. And the numbers look even better if one selects the “less smoothing” option, which gives an even greater weight to the most recent polls. Under that setting, Obama’s at 48.6 percent disapprove, 48 percent approve—essentially dead even.
What could be driving the president’s numbers upward? Is it the budget deal passed in December? If so, we aren’t seeing it in Pollster’s job approval numbers for Congress, which have fallen since then and entered the truly putrid range. Maybe it’s the presidential race—specifically the fact that the public is seeing the quality of the Republicans who’ve been attacking Obama at every turn, and have decided that if those guys don’t like him, that must mean the president is doing something right.
Ultimately, I have no idea. Feel free to offer to your own. But whatever the cause, anything that gives President Obama more leverage to act in his final year is definitely a good thing.