The data are provisional, but if they hold true—and there is good reason to believe they will—the summer melting of Arctic sea ice is very likely headed for a record year in 2016.
For the past month, the National Snow and Ice Data Center hasn’t been updating its near-real time daily chart of sea ice observations because of a problem with the passive microwave sensor on the Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite that monitors the ice. It’s been working on replacing the F17 data with data from DMSP F18. Now for the first time since April 12, it has provisionally updated its chart, shown above.
As reported Friday at the NSDIC site:
NSIDC has obtained data from the DMSP F-18 satellite and is in the process of intercalibrating the F-18 data with F-17 data. Intercalibration addresses differences between the series of sensors, in order to provide a long-term, consistent sea ice record. While this work continues, we are displaying the uncalibrated F-18 data in the daily extent image. The daily time series graph shows F-17 data through March 31, and F-18 data from April 1 forward. Initial evaluation of the uncalibrated F-18 data indicates reasonable agreement with F-17, but the data should be considered provisional and quantitative comparisons with other data should not be done at this time.
When the intercalibration is completed and the “provisional” is removed, we’ll know for sure whether this disturbing melt holds true.