Leading Off
● United Kingdom – Tory and Labour leadership elections (Sept. 24)
If you think American politics have been through a turbulent summer, we've got nothing on Great Britain. After a shocking vote in favor of leaving the European Union, followed by Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation and a short but wild Tory leadership election, the United Kingdom has finally calmed down a bit. But it remains in the middle of a bitter Labour leadership campaign that will seemingly never end.
The Tories followed through with their trademark ruthless efficiency in leadership decisions. Under Tory Party rules, the Tory members of parliament (MPs) vote for a new leader round-by-round, eliminating the lowest vote-getter until two remain. Those final two choices are then voted on by the party's members, who number around 150,000 nationwide.
MP Boris Johnson, one of the most vocal proponents of "Brexit," had widely been expected to seek the Tories' top spot—and because the Tories currently control the government, the person ascending to party leadership would also simultaneously become the U.K.'s new prime minister. But MP Michael Gove, another big "Leave" supporter, stabbed Johnson in the back only hours before Johnson's scheduled announcement by announcing his own candidacy. This caused Johnson to abandon ship and, in turn, sent Johnson's backers migrating toward a third Leave advocate, the less well-known MP Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom ended up making the final two over Gove and was to go up against MP Theresa May, who had quietly supported the "Remain" position but was considered the favorite by prognosticators throughout the contest. But after a series of missteps by Leadsom, including indirectly criticizing May for not being a mother, various party members successfully pressured Leadsom into quitting. And just like that, the Tories had a new leader—and the United Kingdom got a new prime minister.
Labour has also exhibited its own trademark behavior in its leadership election, which in this case means vicious infighting. For Labour, 50 MPs can nominate a challenger, which automatically calls a new election. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who'd been castigated by his fellow party members for failing to support Remain with sufficient enthusiasm, refused to step down even though virtually every Labour MP was calling for his head in the wake of the Brexit vote.
That earned Corbyn a challenge from fellow MP Owen Smith, who consolidated the support of the anti-Corbyn side and thus triggered a new election—just a year after Corbyn first won his post. There was some debate over whether Corbyn would even make the ballot, as he likely could not have gotten 50 MPs to renominate him, but Labour's National Executive Committee ruled that as leader, he would automatically appear.
Labour MPs overwhelmingly loathe Corbyn as leader, some for his leftist policies but most for his perceived incompetence and the fear that he will cost them their jobs. The public at large also doesn't seem to like Corbyn, as he tends to poll very poorly, as does the Labour Party itself. However, the 600,000-strong Labour grassroots, who make up almost the entire electorate that will actually get to vote for a new leader, are much more inclined towards Corbyn. He's won the endorsement of most local Labour organizations that have endorsed so far (100 for Corbyn, versus 21 for Smith), and most observers believe he will win a similar victory to last year's 59-19 landslide over a divided field. Results of the leadership election will be announced Sept. 24.
Assuming Corbyn prevails, Labour will be in essentially the same position it has been in for the past year. Corbyn cannot hold the loyalty of most of the Parliamentary Labour Party (that is, Labour MPs), but whoever you want to blame for this, it's a fact that seems unlikely to change. The PLP, meanwhile, cannot get rid of Corbyn, at least until he sees the party through a general election. But the timing of the next general election is totally out of Labour's control, as it could come as soon as next year or not until 2020, depending on whether Theresa May decides to seek a personal mandate by calling early elections. In the meantime, the Tories are allowed to govern without any real opposition as half of Labour remains at war with the other half.
A comparison of the two parties' leadership elections is enlightening. Theresa May was installed as prime minister 19 days after David Cameron announced that he would step down. Labour is essentially still fighting the same battle that started in May of 2015. Good ideas are required to win elections, but so are things like party unity and the appearance of competence. Labour has consistently trailed in the polls since last year's general election, and until it can find a way to show these things to the public, it's likely to remain in bad shape.
Oceania
● Australia – parliament (July 2)
As expected, late vote counts put Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's center-right Liberal-National coalition barely over the top for a lower house majority in last month's elections. We previously discussed how dissatisfaction with the coalition's fiscal policies and Australia's economy cause the center-left Labor Party opposition to gain seats, but it was ultimately not enough for Australian voters to oust the incumbent government after just one term. Neither major faction has a majority in the Senate without relying on several minor parties, just as it was before the election.
Asia
● Japan – parliament (upper house) (July 10)
Incumbent Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the big winner of Japan's election, where one-half of its upper chamber (the House of Councillors) was up for election. The ruling coalition (Abe's right-of-center Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and center-right Komeito) holds a two-thirds majority in the lower house, which allows it to overrule the upper house on almost every issue except constitutional amendments, which must also be approved by two-thirds of the upper house (and pass in a voter referendum). Last month, the coalition got its sought-after two-thirds majority in the upper house majority, precisely to pass such constitutional amendments. By far the most controversial proposed amendment is a revision of Article 9, which, since World War II, has barred Japan from creating any sort of military (though it does maintain the military-esque Japanese Self-Defense Forces).
The opposition center-left Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party had agreed to back unity candidates to oppose the LDP, but it wasn't nearly enough. With the opposition in total disarray, Abe's hold on power has never been stronger.
Europe
● Germany (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) – state parliament (Sept. 4)
German voters will head to the polls in state parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which is located in the country's northeastern corner and is home to 1.5 million people. It also happens to be the home state of Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the elections present another test over her handling of the Syrian refugee crisis and the country's immigration policies. The center-left Social Democratic Party currently leads a grand coalition with Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union, but polling shows the xenophobic right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) will gain many seats, looking to build on the success of its performances in other recent state elections.
Sub-Saharan Africa
● São Tomé and Príncipe – president (first round: July 17, runoff: Aug. 7)
Left-leaning incumbent President Manuel Pinto da Costa will face Evaristo Carvalho of the centrist Independent Democratic Action party in an Aug. 7 runoff rematch of their 2011 contest. Carvalho just barely missed a majority to avoid a runoff with 49.9 percent to Pinto da Costa's 24.8 percent, while former Prime Minister Maria das Neves of the center-left Social Democratic Party came in third with 24.3 percent. After having come so close the first time, Carvalho naturally stands a good chance of prevailing in the second round. But if Pinto da Costa, who formerly led the Social Democratic Party, can consolidate the votes of his old party's nominee, he might be able to pull off an upset. A Carvalho victory would give the tiny island nation its first one-party government since democratization in the early 1990s.
● Zambia – president and legislature (Aug. 11)
Zambia heads back to the polls just a year after its last presidential election, which was held to fill the final year of President Michael Sata's five-year term after Sata died in October of 2014. This time, a full term is at stake, and the two main candidates are incumbent President Edgar Lungu of the left-wing Patriotic Front and Hakainde Hichilema of the more centrist United Party for National Development. So far the election has been marred by controversy, with violent clashes between supporters of opposing candidates and the government suppressing a leading opposition newspaper.
Since the last election, Zambia changed its electoral system to require a runoff if no presidential candidate receives a majority, following several straight elections where the victor won with just a plurality of support. Voters will also elect members of the National Assembly in first-past-the-post single-member districts, as well as decide whether to adopt a new bill of rights.
The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by David Beard and Stephen Wolf and is edited by David Nir.