Georgia is still far from a sure thing for Democrats, but it may be turning into a legit battleground state after a JMC Enterprises poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton besting Donald Trump by seven points there, with 10 percent still "undecided."
Clinton has a seven point (44-37%) lead over Trump, while 7% favor Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% favor Green Jill Stein, and 10% are undecided. While robust black support (84-6% over Trump) helps Clinton, she’s also pulling 25% of the white vote, while Johnson gets another 10%, and Trump can only get 52%. From a geographic standpoint, only the (nearly all white) counties in the Chattanooga TN and Greenville SC media markets are showing much affinity for Trump. It also helps Clinton that there is a 14-point gender gap: men favor Trump 41-40%, while women favor Clinton 48-35%.
The seven-point edge is a particularly interesting finding against the backdrop of the fact that President Obama's approval ratings are underwater there, 44-48 percent—meaning the state isn't necessarily friendly territory for Democrats by any stretch. Nonetheless Clinton seems to be trending upward in the Peach State in the last five polls taken since the Republican convention ended July 21. Here's a list:
Aug. 6-7, JMC Enterprises: Clinton 44, Trump 37
Aug. 1-4, Abt SRBI: Clinton 41, Trump 38
Jul. 31, Landmark Communications: Clinton 46, Trump 46
Jul. 29-31, Survey USA: Clinton 42, Trump 46
Jul. 24, Landmark Communications: Clinton 44, Trump 46
Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast model of Georgia now has Clinton at 51.3 percent vs. Trump at 48.7 percent.