Last year, the Virginia Republican Party announced that they would nominate their 2017 statewide candidates through a convention rather than a primary, but that all changed this weekend. On Saturday, by a 41-40 vote, the GOP’s State Central Committee voted to conduct a primary instead, a move that is already shaking up the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe.
As we’ve noted in the past, GOP nominating conventions tend to be dominated by ultra-conservative activists who prize purity over electability even more than your standard crop of primary voters. The best example is E.W. Jackson, the GOP’s disastrous 2013 lieutenant governor nominee. In the 2012 primary for Senate, Jackson took less than 5 percent of the vote. But one year later, the little-known Jackson defeated several better-known and more formidable opponents to win the GOP nod. (Jackson badly lost the general election 55-45.) As ex-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor can attest, primaries don’t always favor establishment candidates either, but they’re still less likely to result in victories for completely unknown and unpredictable candidates.
On Sunday, state Sen. Frank Wagner, who represents a competitive Hampton Roads seat, announced that he would run for governor; Wagner said that the switch to a primary made all the difference for him. Wagner joins ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, who came close to winning the 2014 Senate race; Rep. Rob Wittman; and Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart, who is currently serving as Donald Trump's state campaign chair, in the 2017 GOP primary. It’s also possible that the switch to a primary could encourage other Republicans to get in.
At the end of June, Gillespie had about $1 million in the bank, while Wittman, who is also seeking re-election this year in a safely red seat, had just $56,000 on-hand. Stewart has brought in nothing, and says he won’t start fundraising until October. Wagner spent almost $2 million to win re-election in 2015, so he may have the financial support he’ll need. The switch to a primary likely helps Gillespie the most, though. In 2014, Gillespie won just 60 percent of the convention vote against a field of utter Some Dudes, and the establishment candidate may have had trouble against a stronger candidate. And as the candidate with the most cash, Gillespie will benefit from a primary where TV advertising will play a huge part. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam faces no credible primary opposition.