In my district, CA-39, we have a choice between a far-right conservative congressional lifer and a solid Democrat who was recruited by the DCCC to run against him. I've written about all many of the things
wrong with Ed Royce previously and outlined
Brett Murdock's background and why he is a better fit for California. But do the Democrats stand a chance of flipping this seat in November? Absolutely--and here are the main reasons why:
- The district is becoming more blue. Democratic voter registration in the district is growing and currently stands at R+3%. Just a few years ago the district was R+5%.
- The 39th district is 31% Asian and 33% Hispanic. This district has the 7th highest concentration of Asian residents in the country. The district is higher in percent of people with college degrees than California as a whole (39% vs. 30%). It has a lower percent of people below the poverty line and a higher household income than California as a whole. Trump is doing poorly with better-educated people and minorities, and this could lead to spillover that will help down ballot Democrats like Murdock. The demographics in this district should be favorable to a Democrat this year.
- In the 2008 Obama wave election, Royce won by 58,151 votes and led his opponent by 25 points. In 2012, Royce won by 39,247 or about 16 points. Romney beat Obama by 3 points, so a lot of Democrats voted for Royce. If the Democrats vote for Murdock in 2016, this could be very close.
- Royce got about the same number of votes in 2008 and 2012, but the Democrats picked up about 20,000 votes. This trend is likely to continue in our favor.
- Brett performed better in the primary than any recent Democratic candidate. He picked up 27,063 more votes in the 2016 primary than Jay Chen did in 2012.
- California's top-two senate primary resulted in two Democrats on the ballot to replace retiring Barbara Boxer. The rivalry between Loretta Sanchez and Kamala Harris is stirring up some Democratic interest in the election. Trump at the top of the ticket and no Republican running for Senate means less motivation for moderate Republicans to vote.
- Proposition 64, the measure to legalize recreational marijuana in the state which seems to be headed for victory, could draw more younger people to vote.
- The Democrats' strong GOTV efforts will help all downballot candidates.
Could the combination of demographic changes and imbalanced enthusiasm for voting be the game-changer this year? It really depends on us. Brett is running a modest campaign without big-ticket supporters, so if you live in this district (northern Orange County and parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties) or would just like to help with time or money, your contribution will have a big impact!
Contact the campaign directly if you’d like to volunteer:
brett@brettmurdock.com
katie@brettmurdock.com