I’ve seen a lot of people — including the Sanders campaign — trumpet polls that show Sanders beating Trump by twice as much as Clinton. Critics have pointed out, fairly I think, that there are other polls which show less of a difference. And as we all know, this far ahead of the general election such polls have very little predictive value. Less frequently, I’ve seen different versions of the chart below, with Sanders’ and Clinton’s current favorability/unfavorability numbers mixed in with the others. That is comparing apples to oranges, because the other numbers are all from the months leading up to the general election. So I modified it to make this version, which I think is both fair and highlights Clinton’s big problem if she is in the general election:
Again, Sanders and Clinton’s numbers now cannot be compared directly to the others, and by themselves are not very predictive. But it’s perfectly reasonable to ask how these numbers might change between now and the general election. When I posted a chart like this in a comment the other day, someone reminded us about Dukakis, who like Sanders was not known nationally before running for the nomination. Going into the general election, Dukakis was in positive territory, but the Republicans were able to drag him down to -7 and win. The same thing could happen to Sanders, so his campaign better be prepared to respond strongly under attack. Their successful response to the DNC data breach shows they are at least capable of fighting back.
Clinton however, has to bring her numbers up substantially if she faces a candidate with even middling numbers (say, Rubio). And that’s a problem, because she is the furthest thing from unknown. As Clinton supporters often point out, she has faced attacks for a long time, so it’s unlikely her numbers will get much worse. But by the same token, people are already very familiar with her positives, so bringing her numbers up significantly is equally unlikely. And that makes her less electable than Bernie.
Sources:
Up next: A diary on why we’ll get more done in a Sanders presidency.
Update: I had Clinton’s favorability and unfavorability #s in the wrong columns. The chart above now has been corrected, as well as the URLs in the caption. Thx, Colonel Rainsborough! (Those responsible have been put in a sack. With llamas.)