Last week the tea leaf reading in Democratic circles became manic when Elizabeth Warren tweeted praise for Bernie Sanders’s efforts on behalf of financial reform. That by itself would not have stirred much attention. After all, Warren and Sanders are practically Furioso and Mad Max when it comes to attacking the Wall Street citadel. What raised eyebrows and started the head scratching was that 90 minutes after her tweet Warren sent out a second message praising ALL the Democratic candidates for campaigning on reform…specifically hash-tagging Hillary and Martin O’Malley.
That started wild speculation about what kind of phone calls Warren received in those 90 minutes from “interested” parties that she amend her original tweet. Whether it was pressure from the outside or on her own initiative, the incident highlighted the unique place Elizabeth Warren holds in this particular Democratic Party nomination. Unlike anyone else in the Democratic Party (or out for that matter), Warren’s endorsement is one that really matters…and could be far more important than either the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary.
If before South Carolina, Warren decides to endorse Bernie--her natural ideological ally--she will consolidate and solidify Bernie’s standing among Party progressives and pretty much ensure that Hillary will be in for a very long slog through the entire primary process. If she endorses Hillary before South Carolina, she will be giving Hillary a badly needed opening to the progressive wing of the Party, which will in turn assure her of the nomination.
Warren might prefer to endorse neither and let the primary process play out. But whatever pressures…either external or internal…that were brought to bear on her to send out that second tweet are not going to go away. And being a person of both principle and courage, she will not be able to resist for long the urge to take a stand. Although her ideological affinity is clearly with Bernie, there surely must be a powerful gender affinity with Hillary. That coupled with the Clintons’ experience in Washington horse-trading will probably lead to them offering her a position or policy prize she will not be able to refuse in exchange for her endorsement. More than Iowa or New Hampshire, if Hillary wins the Warren primary, she wins the nomination.