I usually write these on Thursday, but I’ll be on a plane tomorrow and didn’t want to wait until Friday to start examining what is now a very real surge from Team Bernie Sanders. In fact, this is the first time I’ve done one of these where the Democratic side gets top billing! But before I get to the numbers, I’d just like to make two points:
1) Let’s all point and laugh at Debbie Wasserman Schultz for screwing up the “protect Hillary Clinton by making the debates invisible” strategy. Clinton’s high-water mark came when people actually saw her (during the first debate and Benghazi hearings); and
2) I don’t want to hear Martin O’Malley and his supporters whining about a lack of media coverage, since Sanders didn’t get much better. Like Donald Trump on the other side, this cycle is showing how impotent traditional media is in blocking access to candidates. The campaigns of the future will be fought on social media, not the front pages of The New York Times and other media dinosaurs.
Okay, enough of that. Now, to the numbers!
DEMOCRATS
The topline numbers still look good for Clinton, obviously, with that 14-point lead. But the trends aren’t particularly encouraging for her. Compared to last week, Clinton is down 4.2 points while Sanders is up 5.8, for a net shift of 10 points.
Thank god for the aggregate, because the individual polls are all over the place:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
CBS/NYT |
1/7-10 |
48 |
41 |
12/4-8 |
52 |
32 |
NBC/SURVEYMONKEY |
14-10 |
52 |
37 |
12/28-1/3
|
53 |
36 |
IBD/TIPP |
1/4-8 |
43 |
39 |
11/30-12/4 |
51 |
33 |
Fox |
1/4-7 |
54 |
39 |
12/16-17 |
56 |
34 |
Ipsos/Reuters |
1/2-6 |
58 |
30 |
12/26-30 |
57 |
32 |
YouGov/Economist |
12/31-1/6 |
54 |
37 |
12/18-21 |
53 |
39 |
CBS/NYT and TIPP both see big movement, no one else does. We always trust the aggregate über alles, but man, what a mess. At the very least, it’s clear that Sanders has crossed his 30 percent demographic ceiling, though to what extent remains to be seen.
(Note, I’ve excluded a new Gravis poll showing Clinton up by like 40, because those guys suck.)
In Iowa, the polling is clearly trending Sanders’ way:
The individual polls all show movement Sanders’ way:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
PPP |
1/8-10 |
46 |
40 |
12/10-13 |
52 |
34 |
ARG |
1/6-10 |
44 |
47 |
n/a |
- |
- |
Quinnipiac |
1/5-10 |
44 |
49 |
12/4-13 |
51 |
40 |
NBC/WSJ |
1/2-7 |
48 |
45 |
9/23-30 |
47 |
36 |
Ann Selzer released her latest poll of Iowa today, but just the Republican side. The Democratic numbers come out tomorrow. When I guess at the final results, I’ll just use her numbers. She is the gold-standard of polling anywhere.
Barring surprising numbers from Selzer, we can safely assume that Iowa is, right now, a dead heat, while Sanders is pulling away in New Hampshire:
The recent polling doesn’t look as close as the aggregate:
|
SANDERS |
CLINTON |
ARG |
1/7-10 |
47 |
44 |
12/20-22 |
43 |
46 |
Monmouth U |
1/7-10 |
53 |
39 |
10/29-11/1 |
45 |
48 |
Fox |
1/4-7 |
50 |
37 |
11/15-17 |
45 |
44 |
NBC/WSJ |
1/2-7 |
50 |
37 |
9/23-30 |
48 |
39 |
No matter how you look at those numbers, they are brutal for Clinton. This state was always Sanders’ best hope, so expectations are already baked in. A Clinton victory here would’ve been a clear death-knell for the Sanders campaign. Chances of that happening now appear to be fading.
The tendency among establishment Democrats might be to start panicking, like their Republican counterparts. Hopefully they suppress that shit. Despite all the online sturm und drang, both campaigns have remained relatively positive. They need to stay that way.
REPUBLICAN
Hey look, it’s the GOP’s turn to have a week of nothing!
Okay, not nothing, since Ted Cruz continues to suck up Ben Carson’s fading support, but both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have leveled off. And just as importantly, the buckets aren’t moving:
|
TRUMP |
RELIGIOUS RIGHT |
ESTABLISHMENT |
Undecided |
Jan 13 |
37 |
29.6 |
24.6 |
5.4 |
Jan 7 |
36.9 |
29.5 |
25.8 |
3.7 |
Dec 6 |
34.7 |
29.1 |
25.6 |
7.8 |
Nov 4 |
28.4 |
34.1 |
27.3 |
7.4 |
Oct 4 |
28.1 |
27.6 |
30.4 |
6.9 |
Sep 7 |
31.8 |
27.7 |
23.5 |
6.9 |
Aug 3 |
24.5 |
20.6 |
36.7 |
8.4 |
I mean, we have 6 weeks in which the religious right aggregate numbers (Cruz, Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum) haven’t budged from 29 percent. That’s pretty amazing! So Cruz’s gains still don’t threaten Trump. No one does.
The individual polls:
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
CBS/NYT |
1/7-10 |
36 |
19 |
12 |
6 |
12/4-8 |
35 |
16 |
9 |
13 |
NBC/SURVEYMONKEY |
1/4-10 |
38 |
20 |
11 |
9 |
12/28-1/3
|
35 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
IBD/TIPP |
1/4-8 |
34 |
18 |
9 |
8 |
11/30-12/4 |
27 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
FOX |
1/4-7 |
35 |
20 |
13 |
10 |
12/16-17 |
39 |
18 |
11 |
9 |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
1/2-6 |
41 |
15 |
8 |
11 |
12/26-30 |
39 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
YOUGOV/ECONOMIST |
1/9-11 |
36 |
20 |
11 |
6 |
12/31-1/6 |
36 |
19 |
13 |
6 |
A whole lot of nothing. Oh, and I can safely dump Carson from these tables moving forward.
Iowa is about as close as can be:
Holy wow.
|
CRUZ |
TRUMP |
RUBIO |
PPP |
1/8-10 |
26 |
28 |
13 |
12/10-13 |
25 |
28 |
14 |
DMR/Selzer |
1/7-10 |
25 |
22 |
11 |
12/7-10
|
31 |
21 |
10 |
ARG |
1/6-10 |
25 |
29 |
10 |
n/a |
- |
- |
- |
Quinnipiac |
1/5-10 |
29 |
31 |
15 |
12/4-13 |
27 |
28 |
14 |
FOX |
1/4-7 |
27 |
23 |
15 |
12/7-10 |
28 |
26 |
13 |
NBC/WSJ |
1/2-7 |
28 |
24 |
13 |
9/23-30 |
6 |
24 |
6 |
As you’ll hear me repeat incessantly, the one pollster that matters to me in Iowa is Selzer, and she’s showing a real drop in Cruz’s numbers. It looks like the birther attacks on him may actually be working. Regardless, it looks like Iowa will provide a great deal of drama in both the Democratic and Republican caucuses … to give the top two candidates on both sides essentially an equal number of delegates. Fun! Have I mentioned how absurd it is giving this state first dibs? Of course I have!
Meanwhile, in that other absurd early state—New Hampshire:
I’ve gotta run, so I’ll leave it at that. No drama on the GOP side.
While I still plan to write these weekly, I may end up doing more of them if polling continues at this high pace, or if we keep seeing big movement anywhere, or if we start seeing numbers from the next round of states. Here’s hoping!