In a shocking development Tuesday evening, Democratic Rep. Steve Israel announced that he would not seek re-election this fall, saying he wants to "spend more time writing my second novel." Israel was first elected in 2000 to fill the seat left open by Republican Rep. Rick Lazio, who lost the race to replace Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan to none other than Hillary Clinton. In Congress, Israel was a hawk on national security matters and voted for the Iraq war; he also joined the Blue Dog Coalition and voted for George W. Bush's tax cuts.
But over time he moved to the left and eventually quit the Blue Dogs before rising to become chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ahead of the 2012 cycle. With Democrats deep in the minority after the 2010 GOP wave, Israel faced a difficult task and fell short of recapturing the House, but he did guide his party to eight pickups. His second turn at helming the DCCC in 2014 went poorly, though, as Democrats gave back all their gains from the previous cycle and then some, losing 13 seats and leaving the party with its smallest minority since the 1920s.
Israel, a close ally of Nancy Pelosi, never had too much trouble holding down his own seat, but his retirement completely scrambles the picture. New York's 3rd Congressional District, located on Long Island, is no liberal bastion: Barack Obama won it by just a 51-48 margin, and with the seat now open, Republicans have a real chance at capturing it. Democrats will fight just as hard, though, and they may get a boost if Clinton is at the top of the ticket this fall. No matter what, a solidly Democratic seat just became a must-watch tossup.