After every new mass shooting, pundits wonder what, if anything, can turn this train wreck around. If the unthinkable Sandy Hook tragedy didn’t convince congressional lawmakers to tighten background checks on guns, what could?
Jonathan Cohn sets out a case for how 2016 could create the atmosphere necessary in Washington for actual movement on new gun laws.
Presidential campaigns focus public attention on policy choices and, on Election Day, they bring a broader, more representative slice of the public to the polls. That can create a political environment in which gun legislation can pass. It’s no coincidence that the Brady Bill, the last serious federal effort at reducing gun violence, passed one year after the 1992 elections -- following a campaign in which one candidate, Bill Clinton, took a strong stand in support of it.
This election is likely to feature yet another Clinton taking yet another strong stand in favor of gun legislation. Whether she and the cause of new gun legislation prevail is, of course, an open question. It will depend on whether the supporters of legislation can, for a change, match the fervor of opponents.
Obama knows this -- and appealed directly to supporters, practically begging them to vote against lawmakers and candidates who oppose gun legislation: “If you make it hard for them to block those laws, they’ll change course, I promise you.”
It's worth noting here that the last gun vote that failed in the Democratically controlled Senate in 2013 included four votes from Democratic defectors, including Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska. Both men likely hoped the National Rifle Association would support their re-election bids based on that vote. Ha! No such luck. Both men were unseated the following year.
So in the future, no congressional Democrat should have any illusions that voting the way the NRA wants them to will somehow insulate them from the NRA come election time. If it comes down to a decision between appeasing the NRA and doing what their constituents want or potentially what they believe is right in their heart (Begich was a one-time member of Mayors Against Illegal Guns), they might as well do the right thing. Just something to think about.