There's some very interesting data about how things have changed for the American middle class over the last 44 years (1971 to 2015) on the Pew Research Center (PRC) website. The middle class has gradually shrunk over that period, but the way in which it has contracted is particularly disturbing.
The following table from the PRC website shows how income distribution has changed between 1971 and 2015:
Household Income Distribution
tIEr ---> |
lOWEST |
lOWER mIDDLE |
mIDDLE |
uPPER mIDDLE |
hIGHEST |
2015 |
20% |
9% |
50% |
12% |
9% |
2011 |
20% |
9% |
51% |
12% |
8% |
2001 |
18% |
9% |
54% |
11% |
7% |
1991 |
18% |
9% |
56% |
12% |
5% |
1981 |
17% |
9% |
59% |
12% |
3% |
1971 |
16% |
9% |
61% |
10% |
4% |
Note: PRC defines the middle class as those households with incomes which are between 67% and 200% of the national median household income. The column labeled “Middle” in the table shows the percentage of Americans who are middle class by PRC's definition. The first two columns (“Lowest” and “Lowest Middle”) constitute the lower class. The last two columns (“Upper Middle” and “Highest”) are the upper class.
The really disturbing aspect of the table is what's happened to the second quintile of the income ladder (21%-40%) over the past 45 years. Notice that in 1971, they occupied the top 5% of the “Lower Middle” column, with the rest in the “Middle” column. So 75% of them (15/20) were middle class in 1971. By 2015, they occupied the entire “Lower Middle” so only 55% of them (11/20) were middle class. Clearly, they've lost considerable ground.
Why the focus on the second quintile? Because that's where most of the angry mob of Trump supporters is located in the income spectrum. For them, the past 45 years have been an economic train wreck. They have suffered as much as anyone during the recessions and haven't been able to make up the lost ground during the recoveries.
Meanwhile, on TV, in print media, and more recently in social media, all they see are ads for the trappings of the good life – expensive cars, nice houses, seemingly carefree people eating out, and a myriad of products they can't afford, at least not without going into dangerous amounts of debt. Small wonder they're looking for someone or something to blame.
So when Donald Trump comes along and validates their anger, bigotry, and distrust of big government, of course they respond. And if Trump falters, they'll look for the next most extreme Republican candidate to follow. It's what they've been culturally trained to do for generations.
Somehow, this cycle needs to be broken. Leaving this segment of the population in perpetual frustration as they vote over and over again for those who only make their lives worse is unkind to them and jeopardizes the long term stability of the country.
Progressives need to find some way to reach these voters. Ignoring them is not an option. Like an overheating steam engine, someday they'll explode.