You’ll get dizzy trying to sort out all the victim allegations without a guide. Here’s one to give you some perspective on each of the claims. Each is presented by category of crime and date of disclosure with the more recent first.
Groping - Four Incidents
Trump’s Admission of Guilt: In the Access Hollywood tapes Trump says: “And when you’re a star, they let you do it. “You can do anything. “Grab them by the pussy... “You can do anything.”
Victim 1 - Jessica Leeds - Sales Representative - Occurred: 1980s - Made Public: 10/12/2016
Trump, while sitting next to her on a flight had his hands all over like an octopus, touching her breasts and putting his hands up her skirt. The NYT confirms she told the story at the time to friends.
Impact Analysis: The actions are one of the worst, but given the 30-year time lapse and that she is a Hillary supporter pursuadable voters may be skeptical. To date she has appeared on camera for the NY Times. www.nytimes.com/...
Victim 2 - Mindy McGillivray - Photographer’s Assistant - Occurred: 2003 - Made Public: 10/12/2016
Trump grabbed her on the buttocks at a Mar a Largo event. Reported in a new Palm Beach Post story. The Post articles says her photographer confirms that she told him at the time “I think Donald Trump just grabbed my ass”.
Impact Analysis: This is not likely to be one of the most damaging allegations given the incident was brief and that she does not claim to have actually seen Trump perform the assault, only that he was near her when it happened. She has not appeared on camera yet. www.mypalmbeachpost.com/...
Victim 3 - Cassandra Searle - Miss Washington - Occurred: 1997 - Made Public: May 2016
Trump grabbed her buttocks sometime during a Miss USA contest.
Impact Analysis: This is another brief event that may not get the most attention. She made her assertion in a post on a Facebook page for Miss USA 1997 contestants. She has not appeared on camera yet. www.king5.com/...
Victim 4 - Jill Hearth - Make-Up Artist - Occurred: 1992 - Made Public: 1997
She sued Trump in 1997 over the repeated groping assaults. Of one incident she stated: “He pushed me up against the wall, and had his hands all over me and tried to get up my dress again, and I had to physically say: “What are you doing? Stop it.”
Impact Analysis: She settled her claim shortly after filing and even dated Trump in 1998 when he tried to make friends with her. Her story was not an issue during the primary campaign (Trump’s opponents must wish they has made it one). She has gone on camera many times and may receive more attention now, although the post-incident dating compromises the impact of her story. www.theguardian.com/...
Forced Kissing – Four Victims
Trump’s Admission of Guilt: In the Access Hollywood tapes Trump says: “You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful — I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait.”
Victim 5 - Natasha Stoynoff - Writer - Occurred: December 2005 - Made Public: 10/12/2016
While writing a piece for People Magazine about Trump, she recounts: “We walked into that room alone, and Trump shut the door behind us. I turned around, and within seconds he was pushing me against the wall and forcing his tongue down my throat.” She claims in her article to have told friends of the incident at the time.
Impact Analysis: This may be one of the most damaging to Trump given the violence of the act, that it occurred relatively recently, and that she was friends with Trump and Melanie before the incident. She writes of it compellingly in a new People Magazine piece. She has not gone on camera but likely will soon. people.com/...
Victim 6 - Rachel Crooks - Receptionist: Occurred: 2005 - Made Public: 10/12/2016
Trump, shaking her hand, started kissing her directly on the mouth. The assault was perpetrated on the 22 year old while Trump was on a business visit to the office where she worked. “It was so inappropriate. I was so upset that he thought I was so insignificant that he could do that.” The NYT confirms she told the story at the time to friends.
Impact Analysis: This seems one of the more damaging event given that it occurred relatively recently and involves a 58 year old man assaulting a 22 year old. She has gone on camera with the New York Times. www.nytimes.com/...
Victim 7 - Temple Taggart - Miss Utah Occurred: 1997 - Made Public: May 2016
On her first meeting with Trump when she was 21, “He kissed me directly on the lips. I thought, 'Oh my God, gross.' He was married to Marla Maples at the time. I think there were a few other girls that he kissed on the mouth. I was like 'Wow, that's inappropriate.'" When she visited Trump to discuss her career she says Trump told her to claim she was 17. “Because in his mind, 21 is too old."
Impact Analysis: Trump defenders can’t portray “Miss Utah” as an anti-Trump liberal with an agenda. She was 21 and he was 50 at the time. She has given a compelling and tearful telling of the impact on her during an on camera interview. www.sltrib.com/...
Dressing Room Intrusions - Four Victims
Trump’s Admission of Guilt: On the Howard Stern Show Trump said: “I’ll tell you the funniest is that I’ll go backstage before a show and everyone’s getting dressed. No men are anywhere, and I’m allowed to go in, because I’m the owner of the pageant and therefore I’m inspecting it. … ‘Is everyone OK?’ You know, they’re standing there with no clothes. ‘Is everybody OK?’ And you see these incredible-looking women, and so I sort of get away with things like that.”
Victim 8 - Tasha Dixon Miss Arizona Occurred: 2001 - Made Public: 10/12/2016
Ms. Dixon states about Trump: “Our first introduction to him was when we were at the dress rehearsal and half naked changing into our bikinis.” “He just came strolling right in. There was no second to put a robe on or any sort of clothing or anything. Some girls were topless. Other girls were naked.”
Impact Analysis: This seems to be in the mid-range of damaging. The incident is 15 years old when Trump would have been 55 and she asserts no groping or assault – just confirming what he said he did not Howard Stern. Trump supporters may claim she seeking publicity as she has a website promoting her acting and modeling career. But the Miss Arizona says she leans conservative. She has been articulate and convincing on camera. She likely to be quite visible having already given two on camera interviews. www.cbsnews.com/...
Victims 9-12 Mariah Billado Miss Teen Vermont, Victoria Hughes, Miss Teen New Mexico and Two Other Unnamed Miss Teen USA Contestants (Note A fourth contestant alleges Trump intruded on her but she was clothed and was apparently not offended) Occurred: 1997 - Made Public: 10/12/2012
Ms. Billado and Ms. Hughes both tell of Trump coming into the dressing room where 15-19 year olds were dressing -- some nude and some seminude. As the girls tried to cover-up Ms. Billado says Trump stated. “Don’t worry girls, I‘ve seen it all before.” Billado and Hughes have not gone on camera yet.
Impact Analysis: This may be the most damaging given the age of the girls, the multiple accounts and that it portrays the then 50-ish Trump as a pervert. How can Republican lawmakers concerned about their daughters deal with these claims? It’s nightmare for those supporting North Carolina’s HB2. www.buzzfeed.com/…
Expect to see more convincing interviews from those who have already gone on camera (Leeds, Crooks, Taggart, Dixon and Heath). Interviews with Stoynoff and any of the Miss Teen USA contestants could be deadly.
Without minimizing the personal pain inflicted on any of the victims -- from a purely political standpoint it would appear that the damage to Trump with persuadable voters is the testimony of: the Miss Teen USA contestants, Ms. Stoynoff, Ms. Taggart and Ms. Crooks (along with Ms. Leeds if one focuses on what happened and not on the 35 year time lapse).
Trump will get dumped in two landslides. First the claimants (so many more to come) and then the election.
But here’s a question. Arnold Schwarzenegger survived a similar situation by admitting he’d done multiple offensive acts and apologized for all he’d done. Could Trump have salvaged anything by doing the same?