In a Thursday Atlantic piece, famed author and congressional observer Norm Ornstein asked, "Should Democrats Really Want a Congressional Majority?"
Unequivocally, yes! To be fair, Ornstein was simply noting the perils of either party trying to govern with slim majorities. As he points out, expectations on the progressive left would likely far exceed what Democrats could deliver in spite of potentially controlling both congressional chambers and the executive branch. Yet, despite the challenges Ornstein described—including a "razor-thin” Democratic majority in the House—that option is still far more preferable for progressives than, say, a GOP controlled-House.
While I don't possess the scholarly wisdom of Ornstein, I did have an eagle eye on one of the greatest legislative feats of the 111th Congress—passage of "don't ask, don't tell" repeal. And I'm 99.9 percent confident that discriminatory law would still be in place today but for full Democratic control of Congress that session. In fact, repeal was one of the very last pieces of legislation approved in December 2010 before Republicans assumed control of the House in 2011, thereby killing any advancement of LGBTQ rights bills along with basically all other progressive legislation.
Ornstein is correct that passing legislation through the lower chamber especially could prove a major challenge if Democrats manage to pull a rabbit out of their electoral hat next month. "The 35 or so seats picked up by Democrats would include a couple dozen or more in strongly Republican districts," he writes. "If past history is any guide, most of those freshmen will be in full CYA mode, distancing themselves from their party and president."
But in some ways, that's not entirely dissimilar to the dynamics of 2009-2010. Though Democrats held a very healthy 256 seats overall, the Dems’ conservative Blue Dog coalition held a little more than 50 of those seats, meaning progressive Democrats needed at least a dozen of their more conservative compatriots to pass any legislation that couldn't attract Republican votes.
Looking at the priorities of a Clinton White House, some issues might be nonstarters for Democrats from more conservative areas—health reform revision among them. But Clinton's promise of immediately passing an infrastructure investment to create jobs, pushing immigration reform, and making college more affordable are all efforts that could attract center-right votes, whether they come from Democrats or Republicans.
Additionally, the current GOP meltdown might devolve the Republican caucus into more of a free for all, where members spend more time actually assessing the needs of their districts than trying to adhere to some mythical party doctrine. If next month rocks the Republican party to its core, it’s possible that toeing the party line will provide virtually no protection to GOP candidates in 2018.
Though it's difficult to know exactly what the Republican party will look like following November, one thing is certain: there's absolutely no way it will suddenly be more functional than it has been for the past six years. So while Ornstein theorizes that if the GOP retains a "narrow" majority in the House, "there may well be pressure, and reason, in the first couple of months of the presidency … to do a few things together," that bears absolutely no resemblance to the GOP we have come to know.
Ever since Republicans took control of the House in 2011, they have shown almost no appetite for proving they can govern, passing a historically low number of bills enacted into law even after they reclaimed full control of both chambers. Last year, the GOP-led Congress approved just 115 public laws, one of the lowest outputs in the past 30 years. By comparison, the last inaugural year of a GOP-led Congress with a sitting Democratic president—1997—yielded 153 public laws.
Come January, the GOP, as pathetic as it has been in recent memory, may be nothing more than a shadow of its former self. Likewise, the political landscape as we know it could be upended, especially in the type of purple congressional districts that will ultimately determine the House majority. Within that chaos, opportunity will certainly lurk. At the very least, a Democratic majority will stand a chance of maintaining a functional Congress. At best, it will find a why to capitalize on that chaos, producing a slate of legislative wins for a Clinton White House many thought improbable.
But given how unprecedented this election has been, there’s no reason to assume that next year’s legislative session will be anything close to business as usual.
Kerry Eleveld is the author of “Don’t Tell Me To Wait: How the fight for gay rights changed America and transformed Obama’s presidency.”