It’s crazy enough that polling shows Hillary Clinton with a lead in Arizona, while only lagging Missouri by five. Those may be Red states, but they were already in the “possible” category, especially Arizona.
But Donald Trump’s numbers are cratering so hard, that we’ve got some particularly crazy deep-Red states suddenly threatening to be in contention.
ALASKA. Yes, Alaska.
Trump led the pack with 36.1 percent, followed by Democrat Hillary Clinton at 30.6 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 17.9 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 6 percent. Nine percent were undecided.
The poll was conducted after the first debate, but before all the latest crazy.
INDIANA. Yes, Indiana.
Indiana was never supposed to be competitive, even before Donald Trump tapped its governor as his running mate. The latest Monmouth University Poll throws those expectations out the window. Trump currently leads Hillary Clinton by a slim 4 points [45-41], down from his 11 point lead in August.
Not only is Clinton creeping closer, but “Democrat” Evan Bayh leads the Senate race 48-42 and, amazingly, Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg leads his GOPer opponent 50-38.
TEXAS. Yes, freakin’ TEXAS!
The WFAA/SurveyUSA poll found Trump beating Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent — a remarkably close margin in a state that the last two GOP nominees carried by double digits [...]
The 4-point margin may be Trump’s smallest lead in Texas yet, but it is not far from what prior polls have found. Trump has consistently led Clinton by single digits, including by 7 points in a KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll released Oct. 5
(More here.)
Utah. Yes, Utah, but for a weird reason.
Among Utah voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 34% currently support Trump, 28% back Clinton, 20% back McMullin, and 9% support Libertarian Gary Johnson.
Gotta give it to the Mormons—they don’t like Hillary Clinton as much as the next arch-conservative. But unlike the Falwells of the Christian Right who refuse to reassess their support for Trump, Mormons are struggling to reconcile Trump with their faith—and their faith is winning!
Clinton is shy of where she’ll end up, still consolidating the small pockets of Democratic support in places like Salt Lake City and Grand County (where Moab is located). President Barack Obama got 34 percent in Utah in 2008, without a Mormon at the top of the ticket. Expect Clinton to get there. So the big question is whether Utah-centric spoiler Evan McMullin will take enough of the conservative Mormon vote to hand the state to Clinton (or even win it himself, outright).
So there you have it. Four states that should be nowhere near contention. Four states that are more winnable for Hillary Clinton than must-win states for Trump like Pennsylvania.
Clinton doesn’t need them, but with hot Senate, governor and/or House races in all of them, contesting them is a scrumptious cherry on top. Not to mention, if these states are in play, what other non-polled states and races are also in play? That’s why it’s important, people, to do what you can on behalf of our ticket. Each little GOTV act you take is like throwing a tiny little anvil at a drowning GOP. Throw enough of these tiny anvils, and we’ve got a big anvil. Than a yuge anvil. A tremendous anvil. The biggest! So do it! And let’s make this happen:
No matter where you live, sign up with MoveOn to call voters in swing states from the comfort of your home. Get out the vote and take nothing for granted!