Ok, I think it’s massive. Yesterday, the “polls only” model had an aggregate probability of D takeover of 61.3%. Today that same screen has Pr(D takeover) = 70.6%. What’s going on? Looking at the closer individual races (where poll movement creates meaningful probability differences in the likelihood of overall Senate control), from yesterday to today, we have following probability increase spikes in the following races:
- Missouri: +19.2% (!)
- Nevada: +9.2%
- North Carolina: +4.6%
- Pennsylvania: +4.3%
- New Hampshire: +3.4%
That’s a happy darn day. Clearly, the Kander race is especially driving things, but the subsequent four races also matter a decent bit to the aggregate probability jump.
The next few days will be huge in helping us see how real this movement is. It’s impressive that everything that matters is moving in the same direction (and those of us Feingold fans have gotta believe that he too is up +7.7% from yesterday to today, even though he was starting at 80%). But a person does have to wonder whether this will prove a blip or the leading edge of more substantial R collapse. If this movement is showing up in so many Senate contests than it stands to reason that there’s movement on the House side, as well.