Latest news out of Nevada today courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll:
Turning to the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Joe Heck holds a small 45% to 42% lead over Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, with Tom Jones of the Independent American Party at 4% and "none of these candidates" at 5%. Heck led by a similar 46% to 43% in September and by 42% to 40% in July.
Heck holds a 55% to 36% edge among white voters, compared with 52% to 38% in September and 47% to 35% in July. Cortez Masto has a 55% to 26% lead among non-white voters, compared with 55% to 32% in September and 49% to 29% in July.
Neither U.S. Senate candidate has significantly raised their profile in the past month. Currently, 39% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Heck and 32% have an unfavorable view of him, compared with a 36% favorable to 32% unfavorable rating in September and a 36% favorable to 19% unfavorable rating in July. While Heck's rating has held steady, Cortez Masto's rating has seen a slide with 29% of voters now having a favorable opinion and 36% having an unfavorable view of her. This marks a reversal of her 34% favorable to 29% unfavorable rating in September and her 29% favorable to 16% unfavorable rating in July,
The Senate race has been characterized by charges that each candidate is unduly influenced by special interest groups. Overall, 36% of voters say special interests have too much influence over Heck, which is similar to the 38% who said the same in September. Likewise, 35% say special interests have too much influence over Cortez Masto, which is similar to 38% in last month's poll.
Both candidates are dogged by their association with the top of the ticket, although Heck's problem is a little more complicated. Currently, 27% of Nevada voters say Heck has been too supportive of the GOP presidential nominee, 20% say he has not been supportive enough, 33% say Heck has given Trump the right amount of support, and 20% have no opinion. Heck recently withdrew his endorsement of Trump, which may be why 4-in-10 Trump supporters (41%) say Heck has not given his party's presidential nominee enough support compared with 42% who say he has given the right amount of support.
On the other hand, more voters (42%) say Cortez Masto has given the Democratic presidential nominee the right amount of support, only 7% say she has not been supportive enough, 22% say she has been too supportive, and 29% have no opinion. Fully 65% of Clinton voters say the Democratic Senate candidate has given her party's nominee the right amount of support while just 9% say she has not been supportive enough.
The poll does not give any clear direction on whether a connection to the top of the ticket can be used to sway the remaining persuadable voters. Among this group - including those who are undecided, are supporting a third party candidate, or are supporting one of the two major party candidates but may change their minds - 23% say Heck is too supportive of Trump and 11% say he is not supportive enough while an identical 23% say Cortez Masto is too supportive of Clinton and 11% say she is not supportive enough.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 14 to 17, 2016 with 413 Nevada residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of ±4.8 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
Yesterday’s YouGov/CBS Poll showed a tight race between the two candidates:
A new poll shows the race for the open Senate seat in Nevada is tied between Republican Rep. Joe Heck and Democratic former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto.
The YouGov/CBS News poll showed both candidates pulling 39 percent of likely voters while 18 percent remained undecided. Heck had a 3-point edge in the same survey in August.
A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls gives Cortez Masto a slight 0.3-point advantage.
After recently recanting his endorsement of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, Heck came under fire from his own party, poll analysis shows.
The YouGov/CBS poll found that 53 percent of Nevada Republicans believe party leaders oppose Trump because they are afraid of losing votes. Of those polled, 73 percent want GOP leaders to back their presidential nominee.
The poll surveyed 996 likely Nevada voters from Oct. 12-14. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.
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