Oh, Paul.
As a Wisconsin Democrat, I’ve long had an axe to grind with Paul Ryan. I watched his dog and pony show, his pretense of being an “ideas man,” for years. When he was picked for VP, my eyes rolled out of my head. I thought, here we go, he’s now a national figure. No turning back, the villagers will love him.
And so they do. Since losing in 2012 despite the wonderful show he put on of washing already-clean dishes, Ryan has continued to tinker with his disastrous budgetary “ideas” upon returning to the House. He’s still the guy who wrote the Ryan Budget. And the villagers who still think conservatism is an actual thing that people believe in, love him.
This reputation made Ryan the obvious choice for Speaker. A former VP nominee and the one guy who could ostensibly hold the GOP caucus in the House together. It was the clear tactical move (they needed someone to hold them together), but a long-term trap for Ryan. It was obvious from the moment he assumed the Speakership that Ryan’s caucus was going to turn on him someday.
Why anyone thought that he could maintain control when John Boehner, who has twice the political acumen that Ryan has, couldn’t do it is beyond me. But, at a minimum, he was a band aid at a time when the GOP caucus needed a band aid. At the time he was made Speaker, I thought he had maybe 3-5 years of that job in him. Not so much now.
The advent of Trump has been a catastrophe for Ryan’s career prospects. Ryan has been forced to straddle the pro/never Trump fence, and in doing so, nobody respects him anymore (except maybe the villagers). And Paulie knows it.
Rumors that Ryan has already considered resigning as Speaker are percolating. Martin Longman in Washington Monthly wrote a very astute column where he gets to the nut of why this is the case::
If he’s already considered resigning, that tells you that he knows he doesn’t have much of a chance (let alone any real desire) to retain the Speaker’s gavel. Yet, there’s no need to create more division and confusion in the last three weeks of the presidential campaign, nor to create chaos in the coming lameduck session of Congress. Ryan will probably stick it out to the end of the year, but the Wednesday after Election Night may bring a sorrowful press conference where Ryan announces his retirement or at least his desire to go back to chairing the Ways & Means Committee and be done with taking responsibility for his fractious caucus and passing Democratic presidents’ spending bills.
If he surprises me and runs for Speaker again, the whole weight of Trump’s hordes will come down on the House Republican caucus like a ton of anti-globalist bricks
Much depends now on the scope of Democratic gains in the House of Representatives. Trump and his Congressional supporters will be out for blood. With a 20 seat majority (say the Democrats net 10 seats), Ryan could still twist just enough Crazy Caucus arms to keep his job in the next session of Congress. But that’s a devil’s bargain. He would be forced to do the Trumpists’ bidding and will likely have one or two government shutdown crises hung around his neck by the Clinton administration, damaging his ability to run for President in 2020.
It gets worse if the GOP holds a slim majority, say 10 seats or less. He’s unlikely to find a unanimous GOP conference to support him, with Trump howling for blood in the background. If the American public returns a House of Representatives that is closely divided, I am truthfully not sure who comes out of it as Speaker. I suspect whomever does would have to have the support of Democrats. Either way, it ain’t Paul Ryan.
Should the Democrats take the House, Ryan’s future career is probably still kaput. He will never live down his “betrayal” of the base in a GOP primary. I have my doubts that he would even stick around to be minority leader, as Pelosi did. That said, there is a possible redemption path for him should he elect to stay as a voice of the loyal opposition.
It’s incredibly delicious to see a man that is so dangerous to the working people of this country dragged down with Trump. Just remember — we don’t have to take the House to cripple the House GOP. But every seat counts, and every seat is important for the prospects of an incoming Clinton administration.