Calls for crushing Trump at the polls have me reflecting on the 1972 election.
It was an utter defeat for the left. George McGovern earned 38% of the vote to Nixon’s 61%. In the electoral college Nixon romped with 97% of the electoral college. The map is a county by county view of Nixon’s win.
In a mirror world Trump’s numbers are inching toward McGovern land (39%).
Consider this description of why McGovern lost:
[McGovern] was handicapped by his outsider status, limited support from his own party, the perception of many voters that he was a left-wing extremist and the scandal that resulted from the stepping down of vice-presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton.
Sound familiar? Flip left for right and you end up with Trump, an outsider with limited party support and a reputation for extremism.
Let me be crystal clear about one thing — I’m not comparing Hillary to Nixon or Trump to McGovern.* I’m making a very different point that has to do with the long term impact of a massive loss on a political party.
This 1972 defeat was the foundation for 45 years of hippie punching — ON THE LEFT.
Even today we live in the shadow of the 1972 election, centrist Democrats still build credibility by bashing the base and left wing of the party. Ask any Bernie supporter how that feels.
Republicans are about to experience the mirror image of this phenomena. A crushing loss for Trump will create the operating space in the center-right to bash the racist right for decades to come. The racists will still be there, but “serious” Republicans will earn credibility by “racist punching” and putting as much distance as they can between themselves and the Alt-Right. This will be a good thing for the country.
As a lifelong leftie** this is an uncomfortable comparison. Please don’t take this as equating the Alt-Right with the anti-war left. The only point of comparison for the purposes of this post is that both of these groups are outside of the Overton Window. I’d love to see that window slide left and leave the Alt-right even more marginalized.***
The second worst outcome (short of Trump winning) is a close vote. That would encourage the Alt-Right to try harder next time. Utter soul crushing defeat will create the space for the saner parts of the Republican party to assert themselves and rebuild. It should also lead to 20+ years of Democratic dominance while they sort out exactly what that means.****
Personally, I think that map will look much better in blue in a couple of weeks.
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*McGovern was a honorable man, a genuine war hero, and he had decades of public service before and after his Presidential run. There is no parallel to Trump on a personal level. None.
**Sometimes I identify myself as not just a Liberal, but a Massachusetts Liberal, the only state that went for McGovern.
***Props to Bernie and his supporters for this — his strong showing created the space for Hillary to move leftward on a range of issues. You may see that as opportunistic on her part — I honestly don’t care as long as it results in action. I’ve waited a loooooong time for this to happen.
****I believe it took Democrats 20 years, until Clinton’s election in ‘92, to rebuild the party after ‘72. In that 20 year span they only held the White House for 4 years. It was a very centrist party by that point and Clinton won in part because he was an expert hippie puncher.