It’s fun to make predictions. So I’m going on the record to state what I think will happen in two weeks.
First, some bold predictions:
1. Hillary Clinton will win Orange County, California. This will mark the first time a Democrat has won the county in a presidential race since 1936. Orange County, like the rest of the Southwest, has undergone a stunning demographic transformation over the past several decades.
2. Hillary Clinton will win Duval County (Jacksonville), Florida. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Duval County was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
3. Evan McMullin will win Utah by exactly one percentage point. And the Trump campaign knows it’s in trouble there. Why else would Mike Pence be dispatched to hold a rally in Salt Lake City?!
Now for the Swing States!
Colorado: Hillary +9
Nevada: Hillary +8
Texas: Trump +3
Arizona: Hillary +2
Pennsylvania: Hillary +9
New Hampshire: Hillary +7
Ohio: Hillary +2
Iowa: Hillary +1
Indiana: Trump +5
Wisconsin: Hillary +7
Virginia: Hillary +10
North Carolina: Hillary +2
Florida: Hillary +4
Georgia: Trump +3
Missouri: Trump +7
Michigan: Hillary +11
Nebraska 2nd District: Hillary +2
Maine 2nd District: Hillary +5, pollsters be damned.
Totals: Hillary 359, Trump 173, McMullin 6
I predict that Hillary will win the popular vote by 8.5%.
And now for the close Senate races:
Pennsylvania: McGinty +2
North Carolina: Burr +2 (sigh)
Indiana: Bayh +3
Wisconsin: Feingold +7
Missouri: Kander +1
Nevada: Cortez-Masto +4
Illinois: Duckworth +12
New Hampshire: Hassan +2
Florida: Murphy +.3
I believe that leaves us with 53 seats, does it not? Of course, I could be way off, but it just seems like Rubio is running scared in Florida and I think Trump will really hurt him there. I also believe that Kander will squeak by in Missouri whereas North Carolina looks like a tough fight. But hey, who knows? I feel much more confident in Nevada and Wisconsin and moderately confident in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. It should be a riveting night!
I’m not really sure what to make of the House. Anything could happen.