BEHIND: North Carolina’s Early Voting numbers are slightly behind those of 2012 but are encouraging overall despite the Republicans successful push to reduce hours and the number of locations in 23 of the 100 counties (see N&O article below). As of the end of voting on Monday, Oct 24, 649,550 ballots have been accepted, 576,593 at Early Voting sites and 72,957 mail-in ballots. That’s 9.6% of all registered voters. At a 11.5% turnout, registered Democrats lead Republicans (8.9%) and Unaffiliated (7.7%) voters. Women are outperforming men as 9.9% of all registered women have already voted and only 9.2% of all registered men. Since registered women outnumber registered men by almost half a million voters, this is clearly an advantage for Hillary Clinton. Very impressive: 10.3% of all registered Black or African American voters have already cast their votes, with women leading men 63% to 47%. African Americans make up 22.3% of the NC electorate. By comparison, 658,450 or 9.9% North Carolinians voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
The seven key counties to watch are Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, and Buncombe. These are the 7 largest counties and all have a clear majority of Democratic Voters. If these counties perform better than in 2012, we are in good shape.
BEHIND: Mecklenburg County is the most populous county in the state with 697,423 registered voters. It currently has 10 Early Voting sites with another 12 sites opening on Oct 27. It also allows Sunday voting. Returns after five (5) days of early voting are: 64,915 ballots accepted, 54,315 at Early Voting sites. A total of 9.3% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. By comparison, 72,613 or 10.7% Mecklenburg County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
AHEAD: Wake County is the next most populous county in NC with 689,185 registered voters. It currently has 9 Early Voting sites with 11 more sites opening on Oct 27. Wake also allows Sunday voting. Returns after five (5) days of early voting are: 62,177 total ballots accepted, 51,709 at Early Voting sites. A total of 9% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. By comparison, 52,666 or 8.3% Wake County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
VERY MUCH BEHIND: One troubling outlier is the 3rd largest county, Guilford County, with 355,470 registered voters. It only has a single Early Voting site open with no evening hours and it was closed last Saturday and Sunday as well. Twenty-four more sites are scheduled to open on October 27, so we should see Guilford catch up to the rest of North Carolina. Returns after three (3) days of early voting are: 8,599 total ballots accepted, 4,942 at the Early Voting site. A total of 2.4% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. By comparison, 46,543 or 12.8% Guilford County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
BEHIND: Another outlier is Forsyth County, the 4th largest county in NC with 251,528 registered voters. It currently has a single Early Voting Site with no Sunday or evening voting. Wait times are over an hour. Sixteen additional sites will open on Oct.27. Returns after 4 (4) days of early voting are: 9,923 total ballots accepted, 5,753 at the Early Voting site. A total of 3.9% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. Hopefully, this will pick up later in the week when the other sites open. By comparison, 10,413 or 4.2% Forsyth County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting. It seems this county is a slow starter as 2012 ended with 45.7% early votes, higher than the state average of 41.9%.
AHEAD: Durham County is the 5th largest county in NC with 224,972 registered voters. It currently has 5 Early Voting Sites and Sunday voting with 8 more sites opening on Oct.27. Returns after five (5) days of early voting are: 34,299 total ballots accepted, 33,122 at Early Voting sites. A total of 15.2% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. Go Durham! By comparison, 30,728 or 14.4% Durham County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
BEHIND: Cumberland County is a little smaller than Durham with 203,241 registered voters. It has 10 Early Voting sites with evening hours but no Sundays. Returns after four (4) days of early voting are: 18,728 total ballots accepted, 17,562 at Early Voting sites. A total of 9.2% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots so far. This is one of the counties hard hit by Hurricane Matthew. We hope that conditions improve soon so that voters can get to Early Voting sites. By comparison, 21,850 or 10% Cumberland voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
AHEAD: Buncombe County is slightly smaller than Cumberland with 195,690 registered voters. It currently has 5 Early Voting Sites and Sunday voting with 8 more sites opening on Oct.27. Returns after five (5) days of early voting are: 30,727 total ballots accepted, 28,137 at Early Voting sites. A total of 15.7% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots. Go Buncombe! By comparison, 25,845 or 14.4% Buncombe County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
AHEAD: My own county, Orange County, is quite a bit smaller and with 116, 126 registered voters ranks 17th but in terms of registered Democrats, it ranks 11th. It currently has 5 Early Voting Sites with evening hours but no Sunday voting. Returns after four (4) days of early voting are: 20,004 total ballots accepted, 18,739 at Early Voting sites. A total of 17.2% of the county’s registered voters have cast their ballots and 22.7% of the registered Democrats. Go Orange! By comparison, 14,595 or 13.1% Orange County voters had voted in 2012 by the end of the 1st Monday of early voting.
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