Texas has been seeing massive early voting turnout. Every county reporting to the state has broken every record in terms of daily turnout so far. Where in 2012 and 2016 there was an average of 3% turnout per day this year we are seeing an average of 4%. Because of an increase in registration numbers not seen since the nineties that means record shattering numbers of people coming to the polls.
But what does that mean? Let’s start with some historical data.
Presidential turnout
Year |
RV |
Total |
% |
Margin |
Voting age population |
VAP Turnout % |
VAP registered |
2016 |
15,100,824 |
|
0.00% |
|
19,307,355 |
|
78.21% |
2012 |
13,646,226 |
7,964,668 |
58.37% |
1,200,000 |
18,279,737 |
43.57% |
74.65% |
2008 |
13,575,062 |
8,053,036 |
59.32% |
950,000 |
17,735,442 |
45.41% |
76.54% |
2004 |
13,098,329 |
7,389,864 |
56.42% |
1,700,000 |
16,071,153 |
45.98% |
81.50% |
2000 |
12,365,235 |
6,396,934 |
51.73% |
1,300,000 |
14,479,609 |
44.18% |
85.40% |
1996 |
10,540,678 |
5,605,648 |
53.18% |
275,000 |
13,698,284 |
40.92% |
76.95% |
1992 |
8,439,874 |
6,154,018 |
72.92% |
215,000 |
12,916,937 |
47.64% |
65.34% |
1988 |
8,201,856 |
5,427,410 |
66.17% |
650,000 |
12,239,280 |
44.34% |
67.01% |
|
You will notice a few things.
1. Bill Clinton was competitive in Texas. He lost it by 3.5 and 4 percent in what was a fairly high(92) and fairly low turnout elections.
2. That between 2000 and 2012 we got killed, especially during GWB elections.
3. Between 2000 and 2012 the voting age population went up by nearly 4 million people but registered voters went up by only 1.3 million. During that same period total voters didn’t increase very much.
4. Percentage of adults registered peaked in 2000 and has declined since until this cycle.
5. Republicans seem to have a sweet spot of 44-46% VAP turnout to win elections big.
So why does this all matter?
If the 4% average daily of registered voters holds and applies statewide then about 7.2 million people will have cast their ballot statewide by the end of early voting. That’s nearly as many as voted in all in 2004.
It could just be a shift in voters from election day to early but that hasn’t been the trend. As this shows only about half of the growth in early voting has come from a decline in election day voting and that movement has leveled off.
Early vs. Election Day
Year |
Percent of votes cast cast early |
Early vote turnout |
% |
Election Day turnout |
% |
2012 |
63.04% |
5,020,901 |
36.79% |
2,943,767 |
21.57% |
2008 |
66.47% |
5,352,660 |
39.43% |
2,700,376 |
19.89% |
2004 |
51.14% |
3,779,124 |
28.85% |
3,610,740 |
27.57% |
2000 |
38.86% |
2,485,565 |
20.10% |
3,911,369 |
31.63% |
1996 |
31.66% |
1,774,834 |
16.84% |
3,830,814 |
36.34% |
1992 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
6,154,018 |
72.92% |
1988 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
5,427,410 |
66.17% |
|
So let’s look at some scenarios
48% early vote
Early vote |
% |
Election Day |
% |
Total |
% |
VAP Turnout % |
Percent of votes cast cast early |
7,248,395.52 |
48.00% |
3,624,198 |
24.00% |
10,872,593.28 |
72.00% |
56.31% |
66.67% |
7,248,395.52 |
48.00% |
2,416,132 |
16.00% |
9,664,527.36 |
64.00% |
50.06% |
75.00% |
7,248,395.52 |
48.00% |
4,832,264 |
32.00% |
12,080,659.20 |
80.00% |
62.57% |
60.00% |
|
Now I doubt 4 million people show up on election day but 2.4 to 3.6 sounds like a reasonable range and anywhere in that range would correspond to static early vs. election to the kind of jumps we’ve seen before. In either case, though, we would see 1.6 to 2.8 million more voters than 12 and 08.
That matters because the only data we have seems to indicate it’s Democrats or Dem leaners making up the surge. Eric Ryan, a republican consultant, analyzed the first day’s voters and came up that women were out voting men by a 12 point margin and the party primary split was down to +4 Republicans. In this year’s primary twice as many people voted in the republican primary as the democratic one. 9% have never voted in a general election.
In any case if early voting holds we are looking at an unprecedented turnout vs. the voting age population, surpassing even a race between two Texans and an Arkansas Governor in 1992. It’s possible that Trump has unlocked some store of old Perot voters with his populist rhetoric who haven’t voted since but it appears increasingly unlikely. Texas women, Democrats, and non voters seem to be grabbing back.