I was just diving into the internals of a couple of daily tracking polls that show the presidential race getting closer. The subgroup figures for Hispanics jumped out at me.
The Washington Post-ABC poll has Clinton pulling in 60% of the Hispanic vote.
Over at IBD-TIPP, things seem even more aberrant, with Clinton getting only 48% of the Hispanic vote.
Latino Decisions, which issues weekly tracking polls of Hispanic voters, has had Clinton’s support at 74%, 75%, 74% in its last three reports (Oct. 10, 17, and 24). It looks like it may be a registered-voter sample, but roughly 90% of respondents have been saying “almost certain” or “probably” regarding their voting likelihood. Also LD’s 500-person sample size (a new 250 weekly respondents, plus 250 from the previous week) would have a lower margin-of-error than the perhaps 100-150 Hispanics in a larger poll of 1,000 (a typical national sample size).
For comparison purposes, Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote in 2012. Based on the kinds of things Trump has said during the campaign, one would not expect him to do better than Romney.
Keep an eye out for the next Latino Decisions poll (list by dates), coming out in the next day or so.