With one week to go, it’s pretty safe to say it: Clinton will win, and win comfortably. Projections from our polling aggregators put her at anywhere from 304 to 341 electoral votes, and all of this variation depends simply on how a handful of swing states turn out.
As I’ve noted previously, Clinton has a base of 236 electoral votes from states not on our swing states list. This week, I am dropping New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia from the list, and assuming they go to Clinton. In all three, Clinton leads by 5 or more points, according to our aggregators. There is nothing (Comey and the emails notwithstanding) to suggest that her lead is about to collapse in any of them. The 37 electoral votes from these 3 states bring her total to 273, 3 more than needed to win. Now the only question is how big her win will be. Here’s the current status of our remaining swing states:
STATE |
EV |
538 |
POLLSTER |
RCP |
DKOS |
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN SWING STATES
FL |
C +2.0 |
C +0.9 |
C +2.6 |
T +0.5 |
C +2.8 |
IA |
tie |
T +0.8 |
T +0.7 |
T +1.4 |
T +1.8 |
NV
|
C +3.0 |
C +1.4 |
C +2.3 |
C +1.7 |
C +2.0 |
NC |
C +4.0 |
C +1.7 |
C +2.8 |
C +2.9 |
C +3.0 |
OH |
tie |
T +0.9 |
C +0.5 |
T +1.3 |
T +0.7 |
AZ |
T +1.0 |
T +0.9 |
T +1.4 |
C +0.6 |
C +0.1 |
GA |
T +2.0 |
T +3.7 |
T +2.0 |
T +3.6 |
T +0.8 |
Among the remaining swing states, Clinton probably takes (in order of likelihood) NC, NV, and FL, which pushes her to 323 electoral votes. Trump very likely wins Georgia. So OH, IA, and AZ are now the most swingy of the swing states. Depending on how the last week of the campaign plays out, that could mean up to 35 more electoral votes for Clinton, moving from a comfortable win to electoral landslide territory. National polling shows a slight drop for Clinton, just as it did last week. Pollster now puts her at +6.0, 538 at +4.9, and RCP at +2.8. I suspect the truth is closer to +5 than to +3, as RCP seems out of step not just with the other national aggregates but with what the state-level polling implies. As with the electoral vote, there doesn’t seem to be any development other than a genuine bombshell that could lower her lead by more than a single point or so over the next week, and such a move would almost certainly not flip any of her current safe states.
The Senate: In the Senate races, the key takeaway remains the same as last week: predictions are typically 50 or 51 seats for Ds as the most likely outcomes. RCP and electoral-vote.com now predict a 49-51 split favoring the Rs. However, the state-level polling appears to favor D control.
I am dropping Florida from the list of competitive Senate races because, with a week to go, Rubio is consistently up by 5 or more points. There are 45 safe D seats with 5 more wins needed for control. WI, IN, and IL will be won by the Democratic challengers, who maintain strong leads of 5+ points going into the final week, so the Ds must win 2 of the 5 remaining competitive seats. Here’s the current situation:
STATE |
EV |
POLLSTER |
RCP |
538 |
DKOS |
OUTCOME |
CONTROL OF THE SENATE: THE PICTURE BY STATE
WI |
D +8.05 |
D +6.1 |
D +6.8 |
D +7.9 |
D +5.8 |
D pickup |
IN |
D +6.0 |
D +6.6 |
D +3.7 |
D +3.4 |
D +5.8 |
D pickup |
IL |
D +11.0 |
D +9.4 |
D +7.0 |
D +10.5 |
D +9.2 |
D pickup |
NH |
R +2.0 |
D +1.2 |
R +2.7 |
D +1.0 |
R +0.1 |
? |
PA |
D +2.0 |
D +1.2 |
D +2.0 |
D +1.6 |
D +1.1 |
D pickup |
NC |
R +2.0 |
R +1.8 |
R +1.0 |
R +0.9 |
R +2.0 |
|
MO |
R +1.0 |
R +3.2 |
R +1.0 |
D +1.4 |
R +1.4 |
? |
NV |
R +2.0 |
tie |
R +0.4 |
D +1.0 |
D +0.8 |
? |
In order of apparent likelihood of a D win, based on current polling, the key states are PA, NV, NH, MO, and NC. With 3 of these states on the East coast, we’ll know pretty early if the Democrats are retaking the Senate. So watch NH, PA, and NC.
If the Ds take all 3: everything is swinging their way. The Ds will wind up with at least 51 seats, and quite likely their best-case scenario of 53.
If the Ds take 2 of 3: it’s all consistent with the aggregator estimates, and the Ds will end up with at least 50 and quite likely 51 seats.
If the Ds take 1 of 3: It’s turning into a bad night for them, and they have a more-or-less even chance of 50 seats (which will still give them control, because Clinton will win).
If the Ds win 0 of 3: everything is swinging against them, and they will likely wind up with 49 seats; 50 will require some luck.
The House: It is finally time to look at the likely outcomes for the House of Representatives. With very little reliable polling of any individual races, these estimates are more of a statistical model or expert judgment rather than the more readily quantifiable Presidential and Senate races. 218 seats are needed for control of the House. Unfortunately, safe or likely R seats total to 224 (RCP) or 225 (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball). The same sources project 185 to 194 safe or likely D seats, leaving anywhere from 16 to 25 tossup races. Winning ALL tossup races would bring the D total to 211 at most; a more reasonable half would put the total somewhere in the vicinity of 200 seats. This is regrettable, as I expect the first order of business for Congressional Republicans will be to launch fresh investigations of Clinton before she is even sworn into office.
Next Monday I will provide a final election-eve roundup of the polling aggregators.