Like so many, I’ve been scouring polling data for any hopeful signs I could find, and Dr. Michael McDonald’s wonderful site site has been a great resource.
United States Elections Project
And as I skimmed the numbers tonight, looking for hopeful signs, I happened to cast my eyes over to the three states where voters are broken down by gender. First, in recent years, according to Rutger’s Center for Women in Politics, women have significantly outvoted men in the U.S. Presidential election, in percentages of eligible voters by gender and actual number of votes cast (all F/M):
2004 65.4% — 62.1% (+3.3%) 67.3 mil — 58.5 mil (+8.8 mil)
2008 65.6% — 61.5% (+4.1%) 70.4 mil — 60.7 mil (+9.7 mil)
2012 63.7% — 59.8% (+ 3.9%) 71.4 mil — 61.6 mil (+9.8 mil)
But what shall it profit a woman (and us as a country), if she shall gain the whole world, and lose her own soul? It will do no good if a greater percentage and number of women vote, if they cast not the righteous Democratic vote in goodly proportion…
But they do:
Between 1996 and 2012, women have favored Democratic candidates by between 14 and 20 points—the last being the most important figure:
According to Gallup: President Barack Obama won the two-party vote among female voters in the 2012 election by 12 points, 56% to 44%, over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Romney won among men by an eight-point margin, 54% to 46%. That total 20-point gender gap is the largest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since it began compiling the vote by major subgroups in 1952.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158588/gender-gap-2012-vote-largest-gallup-history.aspx
AT this point, on the site I found data for only three states. There are between 1% and 3% voters of unknown gender, but for men and women voters a striking pattern is emerging: It may be foolish to project from minimal data, but it is thus nonetheless heartening to see that in one purple state and two red states,
56.3% — 41.8% Georgia (+14.5%)
57% — 43% Louisiana (+14%)
55.5 — 42.7% North Carolina (+12.8%)
In the last elections there was between a 3.3% and 4.1% gender differential. The total gender differential thus far is 56% — 42.4% (13.6%). We don’t need these numbers in blue states. We need them in red states and purple states. And it looks like we are getting them.
I could not find any data on earlier EV voting patterns by gender. Is it possible that the majority of these men will go vote on Election Day while women just wanted to vote early? Maybe. Or maybe there are just as many women in red states who have been sexually harassed and groped and have tried to manage without childcare or healthcare and had a hard time getting an abortion or contraception and are just too f---ing sick of it. Republican women are disgusted with the party. It’s possible that the number is really significant.
A simplistic hypothetical about mathematical possibilities (let’s not say “probabilities”):
With the above percentages, for every 100 voters in Louisiana right now, with Obama’s 2012 gender vote breakdown as noted above,
43 men x GOP vote 54% for Romney = 23.22 votes
57 women x DEM vote 56% for Obama = 31.92 votes
For every 100 voters, then, that’s 8.7 net votes for the Democratic candidate based on 2012’s gender voting differential and current gender breakdown of voters.
I haven’t been able to find a site for Lousiana’s gender differential in the 2012 race. But even if the gender voting voting differential is half as large as the 50-state average discussed above, that still gets us to 4.35 extra votes for the Dem candidate at the current turnout level. And does anyone really think the proportion of women voting for HRC will be lower than for Obama?
Women are turning out in record numbers, and 2012 the gender voting differential for a very liberal guy was 20 point. Is it possible that the turnout sensation of the 2016 election will not be any minority group (as we see from above, eligible male voters are also a minority group) but the majority group of eligible women voters who killing it at the polls in record proportion to men?
I am not a statistician, so am glad for any feedback on math errors or further weaknesses to the argument.