Matthew spent yesterday battering eastern Cuba and most of Haiti. There’s not much news out of Haiti yet, as the westernmost portion of the Tiburon Peninsula is still cut off. If there are any saving graces here, it’s that the region struck is sparsely populated and Matthew’s core of highest winds was very small. The small core is probably why neither Haiti or Cuba and their high mountains disrupted the hurricane.
The hurricane did move directly over the Cuban city of Baracoa, causing heavy damage. A storm chaser there reported all through the height of the storm (his hotel never even lost electrical or internet service). The city is heavily damaged. No word on deaths, but I expect them to be low in Cuba and higher in Haiti.
NOWCAST
Matthew’s current target are the Bahamas and this will be significant.
It is likely that the core of the hurricane will cross Andros and New Providence Islands in the Bahamas. New Providence is the capital—Nassau, and if the storm strengthens they could get serious winds—Category 3+. Believe it or not, Nassau’s location in the inner archipelago has protected it somewhat over the years, extreme winds there are rare. Not this time.
From there it is very likely Matthew will make a scraping strike on Florida starting tomorrow, and I expect the eye to actually make landfall from perhaps Port St. Lucie northward through Daytona. This includes Cape Canaveral, which was last damaged by multiple hurricanes in 2004. It is very likely Matthew will still be a very powerful hurricane.
Please check in on Vetwife’s diary, Florida residents.
If you’re a Florida resident, you know what you’re supposed to do, so if you haven’t done it yet, go do it now. If you’re in an evacuation zone along the coast or coastal estuaries, leave. If you’re in a mobile home, find somewhere else to be. If you choose to stay, please write your social security number on your arm in marker. Emergency services are not going to come for you until after the storm, so if you get in trouble due to the surge or the winds, you’re on your own. If you do not need to evacuate—stay put but be prepared to be cut off from electricity and otherwise for at least 72 hours at the minimum. Charge your phones and devices. Gather food and water.
The reports that stores are stripped completely bare tell me that Floridians are taking this really seriously, despite the 11-year hurricane drought (broken earlier this summer with Hermine, the storm that would not go away). Let’s hope for a zero-death toll.
BEYOND FLORIDA
Beyond Florida it is likely that Matthew will move north and then northeast, paralleling Georgia and South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. It will still be a significant hurricane. This is the reason South Carolina began evacuating all coastal areas, some 1 million people, at 3pm today, and evacuation orders are up in coastal Georgia and North Carolina. It is very likely the hurricane watches and warnings now up for all of the Florida coast north of the Dade-Broward County line will be extended into Georgia and South Carolina. If you’re told to leave, do so.
Long range models beyond the Carolinas (this would be Sunday) are...for lack of a better word...wild.
As of right now (and this could change!), it is looking likely that Matthew will spare areas north of Virginia Beach. It is also looking like Matthew will either stall out east of Cape Hatteras, or complete a complicated loop and come back to Florida, early next week. It likely wouldn’t be as strong as it is now, but Matthew may become a storm that just won’t go the hell away.
Really not very often that I see this in an extended discussion like I did this morning:
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBER'S SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR ENLIGHTENING FORECAST SCENARIOS -- MANY OF WHICH ARE TRULY BIZARRE.
and then later in the morning, this:
IN THE EAST, HURRICANE MATTHEW REPRESENTS THE LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE SEEN FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE JOAQUIN (THIS TIME LAST YEAR) NEAR THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST. THE STORM HAS FOUR CHOICES: MOVE QUICKLY AND RECURVE TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE (WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER/SHARPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THAN SEEN IN MOST OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUITE SAVE THE 00Z CANADIAN), RECURVE ALONG THE GULF STREAM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT TO SEA, HANG OUT IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF A COOL AIR MASS IN THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE/WESTERN SARGASSO SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, OR MERGE WITH NICOLE DURING A POSSIBLE BINARY/FUJIWHARA INTERACTION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION HAVE SWITCHED FROM FAVORING FULL RECURVATURE AT 04/00Z TO FAVORING A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC LOOP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST.
Updates as they come in.
We’ll need severe weather liveblogs during the day tomorrow and Friday. The more diaries on this, the better coverage we’ll have. Thanks.