Matthew is a 140 mph (120 knot) Category 4 hurricane as of 11am Eastern Time. The hurricane has ravaged the Bahamas but narrowly missed Nassau, the largest city which is fortunately located on the opposite side the storm surge hitting the southwest side of Providence island. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Matthew to impact Florida’s space coast early tomorrow morning, but random eye wobble and track variations make exact landfall prediction impossible. Anywhere from West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral could see landfall early tomorrow, or the storm could stay barely offshore. Evacuation orders must be followed to avoid the potentially catastrophic storm surge of up to (Updated) 12 feet. Matthew may become the strongest storm on record to impact the central Florida coast.
Matthew has passed through the passage between Andros and Providence island and is entering the steamy waters between Andros island and Florida warmed to great depth by the Gulf stream and climate change. The heat content of these waters is much higher at this date than it was in the record hurricane year of 2005 and is higher than 2012 when Sandy ravaged the Bahamas and the east coast. Matthew is unlikely to intensify to category 5 because wind shear is increasing slightly on its northwest side, but the waters are warm enough at 86ºF to 88ºF (over 30 Celsius) to support a strong category 5 storm (details at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/...).
Rain bands from the outer edge of Matthew are already affecting the east coast of Florida. Long-range NOAA radar from Miami shows weakness in the west side of Matthews eyewall and spiral bands reaching the space coast of Florida.
Update 2pm EST: Possible GOOD NEWS
The northwestern side of the hurricane has weakened. The eyewall cloud tops are relatively low on the northwest side. This may be temporary or it may be the start of a weakening trend. Because the storm still has 87ºF water and the Gulf Stream to cross, don’t count on it weakening.
Miami radar shows concentric eyewalls. Matthew may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eye usually collapses when it is surrounded by an outer eyewall. The eyewall replacement process weakens a hurricane for 12 hours or more until the outer eyewall tightens up.
NOAA’s P3 airplane just made a pass through Matthew’s eye and the preliminary pressure is a bit lower at 936mb. Matthew is not weakening at this time, 3:40pm EDT.