Daily Kos 83%
Huffington Post 84%
Princeton Election Consortium 92% 320 EV
Real Clear Politics +4.2 2-way, +3.1 4-way
Five Thirty-eight
Now Cast 85.5
Polls only 78.8
Polls Plus 75.1
Upshot 82
Predict Wise 80
When I look at Upshot’s state by state
85% or better 263
80-84 WI (10) 80 273
60-69 FL (29) 69
NV (6) 66
NC (15) 60 323
Consensus of models as shown at Upshot Safely Dem 21 states + DC for 263 electoral votes
Comments
Lots of recent polls, both national and state level, plus some Latino specific polls
In general, most showing recent movement toward Clinton
About half of models/aggregators now give OH to Dems, which would take EV to 341
As we look right now, lay of land roughly where it was after Democratic convention, with some possible additional movement.
Absent something truly unexpected, pretty hard to see a path to 270 for Trump
States with which one can play at end of Upshot, with decreasing Dem probability:
VA 94
PA 87
NH 86
CO 85
WI 80
FL 69
NV 66
NC 60
OH 48 (Upshot still has as R, most of others now have as D or tossup)
IA 43
If Trump loses VA, PA, and CO his path becomes incredibly narrow
he cannot lose FL
or NV & IA
or OH
or WI and any other state
In other words, the picture has continued to get better for Clinton.
And recognizing that many of polls included in models are either land line only, and/or do not use bilingual interviewers for Latinos, and that either of these conditions are likely to understate Democratic performance by perhaps 1-3%, the picture looks very good.
Of course, it still depends on who turns out where.
And there are still more than 4 weeks to go.
And still two more debates.
But I like where we are.
Also, there is this. All of that above is based on PUBLIC polling. For the last two-three days there has been increasing chatter in political circles, some of which is now public, that private polls on both sides of the political divide (include those done for Senate candidates) are seeing strong movements, most clearly people moving away from Trump, and then also movement away from Johnson and Stein with Clinton being the beneficiary.
The average of public presidential polls in past two days has tended to be around +5-+6. My guess is that since the VP debate has apparently really changed nothing, polls completed before the next debate will be moving more in the direction of +8-+10. That said, there will be exceptions — LA Times (which is not really a poll), Rasmussen, etc.
But again, I like where we are.