Here are some random thoughts on the alleged connections between the Trump Servers and Alfa Bank and the MJ article alleging Russian connections to Trump.
This is mostly about the server. The Slate article is certainly persuasive that something strange is going on. Is it probable cause for a search warrant for the server? No expert here, but it sure looks thin for that purpose. A warrant to search servers associated with a Presidential campaign close to the election would need to meet a high standard, assuming that the search was public. However, FISA warrants are secret. Given the high risks of Russian penetration of a Presidential campaign, I should think that the evidence presented in Slate and Mother Jones would have led to a FISA warrant and that at least the NSA knows exactly what, if anything, is going on.
If anything is going on, a select group of people would have been told—but most probably not agents in the field, given the political sensitivity. Those in the loop would include the leadership in the House and Senate, the Director of the FBI, and others, but it would be limited. In addition, unless Trump were directly implicated, it would be appropriate to warn him.
Now look at the dates again. The server initially went off-line about the time that Paul Manafort was fired from the campaign. So...Suppose the results of the FISA warrant reveals Manafort is dirty. Either by coincidence or because he was warned, Trump fires Manafort. The server activity ceases. No smoking gun against Trump, Manafort is gone from the campaign, and the investigation into HIM continues.
This is a scenario I could believe—that something is there involving Manafort. If so, the hammer will fall on him. Doubtless Senator Reid and select others know this. It’s appropriate that this NOT be released prior to the election. It also explains the brush-off from the field agents in New York, as reported in the Times.
None of this excuses or explains the appalling actions of Comey last Friday. If this is true, it’s far more serious that some random emails and their tenuous connection to Secretary Clinton. However, I do think it’s a plausible scenario for the server question.
What I can’t believe is that the NSA didn’t check out this traffic given the extraordinary risk of Russian penetration to a Presidential campaign. They have to know exactly what, if anything, was going on. They aren’t going to want to reveal that they got a FISA warrant on Trump’s server during the heat of a campaign, so we’re left to speculate what, if anything, is going on.
Just my $0.02 worth...pure speculation. Feel free to knock it around.
BTW, I haven’t written a diary here in ages, even though I’m a regular reader. Mostly, I don’t have much to contribute, and that’s probably true there, too. I’ve just not seen anyone mention mention the NSA angle.