I’m taking a break for a bit, and believe me, I am heartsick for my American friends and the people here who are facing an ugly four years coming. After spending a day in total disbelief, I’ve come to that bleak point of analysis that one gets after a car wreck and recovering a CD survived intact. For everyone looking with the 1000 yard stare right now, I offer the following.
1. Even in the depths of this loss, the Democrats still outvoted the Republicans. In the implosion in many key states, the swing was 1%. Which means dispute this being a red wave, it was still a razor sharp win. The GOP will claim a mandate, but they are outnumbered by the voters.
2. With that in mind, one key thing that Democrats did this cycle that Republicans didn’t was carry over and build up a massive database of identified voters and supporters. This could very easily become the infrastructure of not just a new presidential campaign but the centre of a new Democratic Party machine. Between Sanders campaign of small donors and the core liberal wealthy, there is the money to back a new DNC, built around a 50 state strategy.
3. The divisions in the GOP haven’t gone away. Trump may have a laundry list of extremists and useful idiots he wants to appoint, but his trillion dollar infrastructure plan is going to get the same attention from the Freedom Caucus as any government spending. Ryan is still the guy that spent a year pissing off his new President. Don’t get me wrong, the appointments to SCOTUS will be awful, the damage to consumer rights, climate change initiatives and the safety nets will be intense, and the changes to American civil liberties will be draconian. They will do everything possible to wipe away Obama’s presidency. But they are still a party at odds with themselves that is relent on Trump’s whims.
4. With that said, this is a party that is arrogant and flush with winning. They will overreach. They will shut down the ACA without a real replacement. They will start a trade war with China that they are ill-equipped to fight. They are also facing an economic downturn between now and 2020 that their tax policies will blow into recession that will hit the rust belt harder than almost anywhere else in the US. It will not be a long honeymoon.
5. Both houses of Congress are razor thin majorities for the GOP. It might not seem like much, but those fractures could become key in blocking the worst figures a Trump administration tries to bring in and to fight key bills. Democrats should take the hint from the Republicans: obstruction carries no political cost currently. Make a hard line on everything while the extremists in the GOP fight each other. Make every Democratic vote on any bill cost concessions.
6. All of that means that for Democrats, 2018 has to start now. It means a brutal post-mortem on this election. Clinton won every debate by miles. She won endorsements from every major newspaper, even ones that hadn’t endorsed a Democrat since the 19th century. Pretty much every Republican official from the last three administrations and every former President was on her side. She dominated the airwaves. And she lost. Democrats need to develop a new, integrated strategy that more effectively understands and counters the current electoral dynamics.
7. If 2018 starts now, it means that if you’re American, you need to start now as well. Organizations like Planned Parenthood, ACLU, HRC and others are going to be under constant attack. Consider setting up a spread of targeted, regular donations if you can afford it. Get to know your local Democratic party. Volunteer if you can. Consider local office if you’re able. A key Democratic weakness is to cede local offices to Republicans, which in turn has led to the domination of the GOP at state levels and the voter suppression efforts that certainly contributed to a depressed party vote total. Start agitating for candidates for every office in every district at every level.
8. There’s about a four month window which will currently be status quo. You know the worst is coming. Use it to secure yourself the best you can. If you’re a same sex couple, make sure your wills and powers of attorney are prepared. Try and lock down your health care plans. Make arrangements financially with the coming downturn in mind. There is no good answer here. Do your best to protect yourselves while you have the protections you currently have.
9. Get ready to fight. It is amazing how far a little effort goes in this day and age. Do you have a GOP representative, senator, state rep or senator? Organize ten people to send in a letter before every hostile policy vote. Letter get read, phone calls get answered. Organize and get out to rallies. Combine them with information and registration to local party offices, campaigns and volunteer efforts. Attend local councils and meetings with a plan in mind and make sure your voice can be heard. Politics are not driven by a mysterious caste of operatives; they are driven by the people who keep showing up, take the thankless positions behind the candidates to organize voters and events. It’s not for everyone, but if you have the drive to get your hands on a way to help, they are always short of people.
10. As bad as this is (a conservative SCOTUS for a generation, more voter suppression and dark money in politics, more gerrymandering) and it is bad, punching back starts no later than a year from now, and the groundwork to do it starts now. Rally, protest, boycott and picket, but just as importantly, volunteer, organize and have a plan on how to use it and follow it up.
There are no nice, easy, or comfortable solutions coming. And there’s nothing that doesn’t even a tremendous amount of work to make happen. But you can fight back. You can draw your line and say ‘no more’. Not only will you find you’re not alone, but you’ll be amazed how many will come to stand with you.