I first encountered the claim on Saturday that Trump had won the popular vote in two different conversations on Facebook. The source of the claim in both cases was Hillary wins the popular vote – not. In that article, the author asserted:
States don’t count their absentee ballots unless the number of outstanding absentee ballots is larger than the state margin of difference. If there is a margin of 1,000 votes counted and there are 1,300 absentee ballots outstanding, then the state tabulates those. If the number of outstanding absentee ballots wouldn’t influence the election results, then the absentee ballots aren’t counted.
Who votes by absentee ballot? Students overseas, the military, business people on trips, etc. The historical breakout for absentee ballots is about 67-33% Republican.
In 2000, when Al Gore “won” the popular vote nationally by 500,000 votes and the liberal media screamed bloody murder, there were 2 million absentee ballots in California alone. A 67-33 breakout of those yields a 1.33- to 0.667-million Republican vote advantage, so Bush would have gotten a 667,000-vote margin from California’s uncounted absentee ballots alone! So much for Gore’s 500,000 popular vote “victory.”
The author offers no sources for this claim at all. It appears that he just made it up, and Trump supporters ran with it. I have now seen it on Facebook numerous times, primarily as this derivative: SORRY LIBERALS…You Can Stop With The Petitions…Hillary Did NOT Win The Popular Vote. (Edited to add: According to the stat counter on that site, it has been shared 14,300 times).
I have seen this meme posted again and again, with nobody who posted it actually questioning the information. Today, after a member of the media posted it on his Facebook page to his 5,000 followers, I responded:
I started seeing this meme pop up yesterday. Did you question whether the statement is true? That "States stop counting once the total remaining can no longer change the outcome?" I am seeing multiple sources that indicate that this is not true. As a member of the media, can I assume you verified this information? I can't find any sort of reliable source that indicates that it is in fact true. Just an assertion from someone on a blog. Ultimately, does it matter to you who won the popular vote, or does it only matter if Trump did?
The author replied with “You're referring to early ballots, Robert...not actual absentee.”
I pointed out that I was not, and ended with:
Does it sound reasonable that they wouldn't count every ballot just to have an accurate tally of all the votes? When I first heard about this, I thought "That doesn't sound accurate." From the Federal Voting Assistance Program, which has a .gov domain: "The media often will report the projected outcome of the election before all of the ballots are counted. In a close election, the media may report that the outcome cannot be announced until after the absentee ballots are counted. However, all ballots, including absentee ballots, are counted in the final totals for every election and every vote (absentee or in-person) counts the same.
Anyway, that’s the source of most of the “Trump won the popular vote” claims that are now all over Facebook. And as far I can tell, it was simply fabricated with zero attempt to support the claim.