Leading Off:
● New York, NY Mayor: New York City's mayoral election has the potential to be one of the biggest races of 2017, if incumbent Democrat Bill de Blasio earns a stiff challenge. That, however, is proving to be a surprisingly big "if." Much of his tenure has been marred by political stumbles that have angered both allies on the left and critics on the right, and his administration and campaign activities are the subject of a bewildering array of ethical investigations (five, at last count).
In a situation like this, you'd expect at least one serious opponent to walk through the door, but quite unexpectedly, that hasn't happened yet. In fact, a new poll from Quinnipiac released on Wednesday shows de Blasio's job approval rating rebounding to an even 47-47 from 42-51 earlier this summer. More importantly, the mayor manages a 61-33 score with Democratic voters, and by a 51-37 margin, they say he deserves to be re-elected. Those numbers might not seem so great, but after the mayor's rough time in office, they're almost miraculous.
De Blasio would also lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary, which is likely to be the only meaningful race next year:
Bill De Blasio: 34
Christine Quinn: 15 (former City Council speaker)
Scott Stringer: 9 (city comptroller)
Ruben Diaz Jr.: 7 (Bronx borough president)
Eric Adams: 6 (Brooklyn borough president)
Undecided: 29
Netting just a third of the vote is far from awesome, but at this stage of the game, it could just be enough. In fact, it's likely that a big reason no one has stepped up to formally run against de Blasio is because if more than one serious contender gets in, the incumbent could easily get saved by the proverbial clown car. (Candidates need only 40 percent to win primaries without a runoff in New York City, so de Blasio's not too far from the mark.)
But several potential challengers are still lurking out there, weighing their options.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a prominent charter school ally and one of the toughest opponents de Blasio could face, declared this week that "all options are on the table," though earlier this year he claimed he was "very unlikely to run for mayor." Jeffries now says his "inclination" is to stay in D.C. thanks to Trump's election, but he'd be able to retain his seat in Congress if he loses a mayoral bid.
The other major figure in the mix is Stringer, who's never ruled out a run himself. Recently, a longtime Stringer supporter, attorney Martin Karlinsky, sent out an invitation for a December fundraiser that he said would help elect "New York's next mayor" and asked recipients to donate to Stringer's 2017 campaign account. But Karlinsky later claimed to the Daily News that his invite only reflected his "hope" that Stringer would run.
New York is, of course, lousy with Democrats, so there are plenty of other people who could run if the likes of Jeffries and Stringer decline. Diaz, for instance, has been raising money at the citywide (rather than the lower borough-wide) limit, while Adams has said he'd like to be mayor—but that he'd be content with waiting until 2021, when de Blasio would be term-limited (if he were, in fact, to win another term).
And though Quinnipiac did include Quinn in their poll, it's hard to take her seriously after de Blasio demolished her three years ago when she campaigned for what essentially would have been Mike Bloomberg's fourth term. However, she recently started criticizing the mayor for his policies on the homeless, and she refused to say whether she might run, so who knows?
De Blasio also remains popular with unions and black voters; combine that with the clown-car problem, and we may just see the top-tier challengers all opt out, which would allow de Blasio to pull off one of the most improbable political escapes we've seen in some time.
Senate:
● TX-Sen: One of the more startling results of last week's presidential election was the fact that Hillary Clinton took a higher share of the vote in supposedly dark-red Texas (43.3 percent) than in seemingly swingy Ohio (43.1 percent). But while Donald Trump's 9.1 percent margin in the Lone Star State was the narrowest for a Republican presidential candidate in many years, Democrats still have a long way to go before they're competitive at the statewide level.
So bear all that in mind when considering Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke's statements that he's weighing a run for Senate—possibly against Ted Cruz in 2018, or maybe John Cornyn in 2020. O'Rourke came to the House four years ago by toppling Rep. Silvestre Reyes, a veteran El Paso Democrat, but winning an upset in a Democratic primary in a blue corner of Texas is an entirely different proposition from knocking off a giant in a statewide battle. (Cruz's fanatic supporters would undoubtedly rally behind him, and the well-connected Cornyn would never lack for money.)
Still, O'Rourke might yet go for it, since he's a zealous believer in term limits and has said he'll serve no more than four, so if he sticks to that promise, he'd have only one more election to the House left. That would mean it's either up or out for O'Rourke, though if he changes his mind, he wouldn't be the first politician to back off a pledge like this.
● UT-Sen: When Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch successfully sought re-election in 2012, he pledged he would retire in 2018. But apparently, politicians don't always tell the truth. Hatch has been talking about seeking an eighth term for a while, and he told Roll Call this week that now that the GOP will control D.C., "circumstances have greatly changed, so I'll have to look at" running again.
Utah is a very conservative state, and the GOP nominee should have little trouble winning here. Hatch could have trouble in a GOP primary if he runs for renomination, though. However, Hatch took his 2012 fight very seriously even as other Republican incumbents like Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar didn't, and he beat state Sen. Dan Liljenquist 67-33 in the primary.
Utah's electoral laws have also changed in the last few years in a way that should help establishment types like Hatch. In 2010, Hatch's Senate colleague, the late Bob Bennett, took third place at the tea party dominated GOP state convention, which prevented him from even advancing to the primary. However, Utah now allows candidates to collect signatures to get on the primary ballot regardless of what happens at the party convention.
● NRSC: On Wednesday, the GOP Senate caucus elected Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner to lead the NRSC. Michael Bennet, the Centennial State's Democratic senator, ran the DSCC during the 2014 cycle. Colorado is the only state where both of its current senators headed up Senate campaign committees, much less rival Senate campaign committees.
Gubernatorial:
● CA-Gov: California Republicans will be hard-pressed to put up a serious fight for governor in 2018, but one of their better potential recruits, outgoing Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, isn't ruling out a bid. Swearengin will leave office early next year and claims "the thought of running for governor is the furthest thing from my mind right now," which, when translated into regular-person English, means the exact opposite of what she says. The only other notable Republican whose name is in circulation is San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who just won re-election earlier this year. He previously said he'd serve out his term, but who knows?
The Democratic field, on the other hand, is large and could grow further. One potential candidate we haven't yet mentioned is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who doesn't appear to have said anything publicly but has nevertheless gotten Great Mentioner treatment from the local press. A big problem for Garcetti, though, is that he's up for re-election early next year. While he's a heavy favorite for a second term, it would be awkward to win and then immediately turn around and seek a promotion.
● IL-Gov: Sen. Dick Durbin had toyed with a run against Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in 2018, but on Wednesday, he finally ruled it out for good. Durbin's fellow Democrats in the Senate re-elected him as party whip, which is the number two job in the caucus and will keep him plenty busy in the upcoming session.
Durbin would have been a strong candidate, and likely would have had a clear path to the general election, so now that he's bowed out, the Democratic field is wide open. One person reportedly considering is billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who was a top Hillary Clinton fundraiser and whose father co-founded the Hyatt hotel chain. Back during the summer, "a source close to" Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers told the Chicago Sun-Times that Summers was also thinking about a gubernatorial bid, while in September, Politico reported that unnamed Illinois Democrats "close to the state party" were hoping to recruit Rep. Cheri Bustos, who didn't rule out a run.
The same Politico piece also mentioned Chris Kennedy, a son of RFK; state Sens. Kwame Raoul, Andy Manar, and Heather Steans; and former Gov. Pat Quinn. It's almost impossible to imagine Quinn, who lost to Rauner 50-46 in 2014, having any constituency clamoring for him to make a comeback, though.
● NV-Gov, NV-Sen: Democrats haven't won the governor's office since Bob Miller was re-elected in 1994. But GOP incumbent Brian Sandoval is termed out, and this may be Team Blue's best chance to flip this seat in a long time.
So far, no Democrats have officially declared. However, Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston writes that Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak is "openly running," and has millions raised already. State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford also reportedly openly talks about running, though he also hasn't made anything official.
The GOP field is also slowly taking shape. Sen. Dean Heller has been mentioned as a possible candidate, and he didn't rule anything out back in May. Heller is up for re-election in 2018, and if he seeks the governorship, some other potential GOP candidates could decide to seek his seat rather than face him in the primary.
Ralston mentions both Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison and Attorney General Adam Laxalt as potential gubernatorial candidates, and writes that Hutchison "has been running for governor, it seems, since he was sworn in." Ralston also names Steve Hill, the executive director of the Governor's Office of Economic Development, as a possible contender. Last year, Rep. Mark Amodei talked about running for governor if Heller didn't, though he doesn't appear to have said much since then.
● NY-Gov: So is Andrew Cuomo going to run for a third term? Who knows! When asked about his future this week, the New York Democrat would only say, "I'm planning to run for re-election in two years"—which, as you know, is our least-favorite formulation ever. We'll mark that down as nothing more than "not ruling it out." Cuomo could conceivably run for the presidency in 2020 (puke), and he hasn't ruled that out, either, though in theory, he could do both.
● TN-Gov: Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is one of a legion of governors who are termed out in 2018. Tennessee has a ton of Republicans who could run to succeed him, and the jockeying has already begun. Rich guy Bill Lee, a major GOP donor who is an appointed member of the state Higher Education Commission, told The Tennessean he was interested back in May. State Sen. Mark Green launched a statewide listening tour ahead of a potential bid this week, while state House Speaker Beth Harwell has also expressed interest.
Ex-U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who currently is the dean of the Belmont University School of Law, isn't saying no to a bid. In fact, when The Tennessean asked him if he was interested, he gave a very candidate-like, "What I'm interested in is continuing to build upon this great start we have here at Belmont law school. I've got confidence in the voters of Tennessee that they're going to elect the right person to be our next governor of this great state."
But wait… there's more! GOP insiders say that businessman Randy Boyd, who serves on the state Economic and Community Development Commissioner, is interested. Rep. Diane Black, who is wealthy, hasn't said much publicly, but the Times Free Press says she is "seen as keenly interested." They also report that state Senate Majority Leader Mark Norris is looking at running.
The Tennessean also gives the Great Mentioner treatment to even more Volunteer State Republicans: Rep. Marsha Blackburn; outgoing Rep. Stephen Fincher; rich guy Bill Hagerty (who, as of this writing, is still on Trump's transition team); Secretary of State Tre Hargett; Americans for Prosperity state head Andy Ogles; and wealthy perennial candidate Joe Carr. Finally (for now), the Times Free Press name-drops Sen. Bob Corker, who has also been mentioned for several positions in the Trump cabinet.
The Democratic list is much shorter, though there are a few notable names. Ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean has been touring the state, and he recently said he's "still very interested in" a gubernatorial bid, and "assum[es] I have to make a decision to make about it early next year, the first half anyway, maybe sooner." Wealthy real estate developer Bill Freeman, who took a close third place in the 2015 contest to succeed Dean as mayor, also says he'll decide early in 2017. Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke and Knoxville Mayor Madeline Rogero are also mentioned, though neither seems to have publicly expressed interest.
● WI-Gov, WI-Sen: Wisconsin is one of the relatively few states that doesn't impose term limits on its governors, and GOP Gov. Scott Walker is holding out the possibility that he could run for a third term. When asked whether he might challenge freshman Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018, Walker seemingly ruled out the idea, saying, "If I run for anything, it will be for re-election in 2018." (Walker also noted that former Gov. Tommy Thompson managed to hold that position for four terms.)
While Walker's presidential bid this cycle somewhat mysteriously failed to go anywhere, he'd be a tough gubernatorial opponent for Democrats, who fell short in two bitter campaigns to unseat him: the notorious recall effort in 2012 and the regular 2014 election. As a result of those two failures, the biggest problem for Team Blue will likely be recruitment, particularly since the Democrats' bench is now so thin in Wisconsin. Of course, should anti-Trump sentiment make itself felt in two years' time, that could shuffle the deck, but we also thought that's exactly what would happen this year.
Legislative:
● DE State Senate: Democrats have controlled the Delaware Senate since the early 1970s, but the GOP could flip the chamber thanks to a special election early next year. Team Blue held a 12-to-nine majority going into Election Day, but the GOP managed to unseat an incumbent Democrat, narrowing the Democrats' advantage to 11-to-10.
At the same time, Democratic state Sen. Bethany Hall-Long, who won a four year-term in 2014, was also elected lieutenant governor. Hall-Long will stay in the Senate until she's inaugurated in January, but afterward, the chamber will be deadlocked at 10 seats apiece until her seat is filled in a special election, which Delaware Public Media says will likely be in February or March. (Democrats held on to Delaware's governorship and state House last week.)
Hall-Long's 10th Senate District, which is located just south of Newark, backed Obama 59-40 in 2012. However, Hall-Long only beat Republican John Marino 51-49 in 2014, and Delaware Public Media reports that he could run again. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Earl Jaques is the most talked-about potential candidate.
Other Races:
● Maricopa County, AZ Recorder: Maricopa County is home to Phoenix and three-fifths of Arizona's population, and with 4.2 million people, it's America's fourth-largest county. Although the county and Arizona itself have long leaned Republican, Democrats scored some key downballot victories in 2016. They finally defeated Sheriff Joe Arpaio, one of the most racist sheriffs in America, and now they have also captured the county recorder's office by a razor-thin 50.5-49.5 margin, defeating longtime Recorder Helen Purcell. She had first won election to the office all the way back in 1988, and Democrats haven't held the position in at least half a century.
The county recorder administers elections, and Purcell had been instrumental to closing an astounding 70 percent of Maricopa County's polling places ahead of the March 2016 presidential primary, which led to disastrously long lines. Arizona has been at the forefront of a wave of states with large minority populations closing polling places after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act. With Democrat Adrian Fontes' victory, Team Blue will hopefully be able to streamline election administration in much of Arizona and make it less burdensome for hundreds of thousands to vote.
Grab Bag:
● Pres-by-CD: Our project to calculate the presidential election results by congressional district makes a stop in Oklahoma, which recently certified its official results. (Ballotpedia has a list of state certification deadlines.) We have a chart of all 435 congressional districts here, which also includes results from 2012. That's the page you'll want to bookmark, since we'll be updating it continuously.
For the fourth presidential election in a row, the GOP nominee carried every single one of Oklahoma's 77 counties. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 65-29, a slightly larger margin than Romney's 67-33 performance here four years ago. Trump unsurprisingly carried all five congressional districts with ease, and all five GOP incumbents were decisively re-elected.
The 2nd District in eastern Oklahoma's Little Dixie area saw the largest swing towards the GOP between 2012 and 2016. Romney took the seat by an already-formidable 68-32, and Trump did even better by winning 73-23. For decades, the 2nd was relatively friendly to Democrats. In 2000, Al Gore won several of the counties that make up the 2nd while coming up short everywhere else. As recently as 2010, Democrat Dan Boren (a possible 2018 gubernatorial candidate) won re-election in this seat. However, Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin took the seat after Boren retired the next cycle, and it looks unlikely it'll be going anywhere anytime soon.
The one possible silver lining in the Sooner State for Team Blue is the 5th District, based in Oklahoma City and represented by Rep. Steve Russell. Romney won it 59-41, while Trump carried it by a smaller 53-40 margin. But the least-Republican district in Oklahoma is still pretty damn red, and it will probably be a long time before Democrats make a serious play for it.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.