Let’s be clear: Hillary Clinton will win this race, and win it easily. Nothing has changed, not even James Comey’s best efforts to push his man Donald Trump across the finish line first.
But what is changing is conservative intensity and engagement, and with that, our hopes of a deeper wave that could’ve flipped the House. A Senate majority looks good, but a big Senate majority … that’s less likely today than it was last week. And if we had a 25 percent chance of taking the House last week, that’s down to single-digits today. We needed Republicans to stay home, and for some reason that I still don’t understand, the word “EMAIL” revs them up into a frothy mess.
But as for Clinton? A smaller victory than “epic landslide” is still a big-ass victory.
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
11/2 |
10/19 |
10/14 |
US* |
C+5.9 |
C+8.2 |
C+8.4 |
AK (3) |
T+7,2 |
T+4.8 |
T+4.8 |
AZ (11) |
T+1.0 |
C+1.8 |
T+0.1 |
CO (9) |
C+4.6 |
C+6.6 |
C+6.1 |
FL (29) |
C+1.4 |
C+4.5 |
C+4.2 |
GA (16) |
T+2.4 |
C+0.1 |
T+0.2 |
IA (6) |
T+3.1 |
C+1.1 |
T+0.4 |
MI (16) |
C+8.5 |
|
|
MO (10) |
T+8.6 |
T+3.7 |
T+4.8 |
NV (6) |
C+0.7 |
C+2.7 |
C+2.1 |
NH (4) |
C+5.7 |
C+6.8 |
C+6.4 |
NC (15) |
C+1.6 |
C+3.1 |
C+2.6 |
OH (18) |
T+1.3 |
C+1.7 |
C+2.0 |
PA (20) |
C+4.8 |
C+7.7 |
C+7.4 |
SC (9) |
T+6.1 |
T+4.3 |
C+4.8 |
TX (38) |
T+6.4 |
T+4.1 |
T+4.3 |
UT (6) |
T+8.7 |
T+7.5 |
T+7.8 |
WI (10) |
C+6.0 |
C+8.1 |
C+7.9 |
Add your name: I am ready to make phone calls from home with MoveOn to defeat Donald Trump and the Republican Senate Majority.
Off the list: Indiana, where Trump’s numbers have improved to a near-10-point lead. I’m keeping Missouri and Alaska on there for the hell of it, but they’re not competitive at the moment. I’ll do another one of these on Friday and/or Monday, and I’ll probably remove them then. Utah remains—not because that near-9-point Trump lead is compelling, but because I’m not sure the polling is able to accurately gauge Evan McMullin’s support. And that’s not the polling’s fault; it’s just a weird situation all around.
I added Michigan, too, not because it’s competitive (it’s not), but to show how pathetic Trump’s Hail Mary final-week gambit is. Any strategy that depends on flipping Michigan and Wisconsin is DOA. In fact, it’s reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s last-minute attempt to contest Pennsylvania in 2012. That didn’t go very well.
So what’s this map looking like in Electoral College terms?
That’s an electoral college rout. But hey, let’s say EMAILS! shift the numbers another four implausible points in Trump’s direction. What would happen then?
That would be a close election, but “close” doesn’t mean “win,” and the numbers won’t shift another four points. Clinton’s demographic firewall (women, people of color, and young voters) are holding firm, and nothing suggests they won’t vote. If anything, people’s hysteria this week can only motivate and further depress the third-party “I’m pissing my vote away because of my incorruptible purity” vote.
My operating theory is that much of the movement in the polls this week is response bias, with conservatives fired up and more likely to answer polling requests. But even if it’s as “bad” as the polling says, that’s still not in any danger territory.
The only downer is that it may cost us opportunities down-ballot, but don’t worry, we won’t have to ever deal with a Donald Trump presidency. If anything, a little tightening up might give us Trump 2020, which I know so many of you hate, but I would LOVE to see happen.
I like relatively easy victories, and Trump is delivering a much easier one than any respectable normal Republican might, however few of those might be left.