Ralston gives a great update
if we get nevada, it will be hard for trumpf
On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes
Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it's almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.
If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.