For those not familiar with it, PollyVote is a presidential election prediction site, but a bit different from 538, NYT’s Upshot, and other poll aggregators. Their method is to combine all sorts of predictive models, and they show that their approach is more accurate than any of the individual predictive models. Their methodology is described very clearly here. These are serious data people, and they have a history of being spot on in their presidential forecasts (scroll to the bottom of the linked page to see their history of calling the popular vote within 1%).
So, where are we at today, according to Pollyvote?
Clinton Trump
That’s a six point spread folks. How much are these numbers going to shift in the next 72 hours? Bupkis.
For comparison, Nate Silver currently estimates the vote percentages as: 48.4 (HRC) to 45.5 (Trump).
Upshot has it 45.5 (HRC) to 42.9 (Trump).
Why does conflict between PollyVote and the aggregators matter? Let’s turn to all-around good (and smart) guy, Professor Sam Wang at The Princeton Election Consortium, and his map of what happens to the Electoral Vote Totals if Secretary Clinton outperforms the poll averages by 2% (via 270 to Win):
Colors indicate likelihood for a Clinton or Trump victory in each state based on Clinton outperforming current polling by 2 percent. See the Princeton Election Consortium site for probability color scheme.
And in this scenario, Secretary Clinton wins NV, CO, FLA, NC— and Iowa and AZ are tossups.
Depending on the poll aggregator you chose, Pollyvote says HRC is outperforming the polling averages by 5 — 7%.
I say Trump’s numbers are inflated— by ‘traditional likely voter models’, and comparison to how GOP candidates have performed in prior elections (prior GOP candidates had functioning state offices and GOTV efforts; Trump does not.
My final guess: HRC 53 — Trump 46.
It won’t even be close, folks— and don’t be shocked in HRC wins Iowa, AZ and OH.
Just sayin’.