Leading Off:
● WI-Sen: One week after the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC announced that they would spend $2 million in the Wisconsin Senate race, Politico reports that they've added another $1.5 million for the final days. Both sides have made some sizable final week buys as Democrat Russ Feingold's lead over Republican Sen. Ron Johnson looks much less secure than it did even a month ago.
Despite the sudden interest in this contest, polling has been very limited here. Marquette Law School, which has a strong track record in Wisconsin, released a survey a few days ago showing Feingold up just 45-44, even as Hillary Clinton led 46-40. On Friday, a PPP poll for the liberal Center of America Progress had a better result for Team Blue, giving Feingold a 49-44 edge as Clinton led 48-41. The last PPP poll we'd seen here was a mid-October survey for the liberal organization End Citizens United that had him leading by a similar 47-41 margin.
Loras College is also out with a poll giving Feingold a small 47-45 lead, with Clinton up 44-38. As we've noted before, Loras has produced some strange results since they opened their polling operation in 2014, though at least this survey matches what Marquette is seeing. Loras' early October poll did show Johnson up 45-40, and as of Friday afternoon, no one else has released a poll showing him in the lead during the entire campaign.
Senate:
● IN-Sen, IN-Gov: On behalf of the newsletter Howey Politics and local TV station WTHR, Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies once again takes a look at Indiana's two major statewide contests, and they give Team Red their best numbers ever in the state's Senate race. Republican Todd Young posts a 46-41 lead over Democrat Evan Bayh, a big change from the 42-41 Bayh edge POS found one month ago in the last Howey/WTHR poll. In the gubernatorial race, meanwhile, they have Democrat John Gregg and Republican Eric Holcomb tied 42-42, close to the 41-39 Gregg lead from a month ago. POS also has Donald Trump carrying Indiana 48-37, up from his 43-38 margin last month.
This late poll on a seldom-surveyed state merits a deeper dive, and we'll start with the Senate contest. One of the very few other polls we've seen in the last few months was a Monmouth survey showing a 45-45 tie; the only other polls we've seen since Oct. 20 were one from the conservative outfit Gravis Marketing showing Bayh up 39-37, and a SurveyMonkey poll showing Young leading 50-46. As we've noted before, many of SurveyMonkey's polls from other states were very different from the many other surveys we've seen from other groups, while Gravis always produces strange numbers.
And as we've also noted before, POS is also Young's pollster. In mid-October, between their last Howey/WTHR poll and this one, Young dropped a POS survey showing him up 40-39. As we said then, it's unusual to see a pollster simultaneously work for a political candidate and a non-partisan media organization because it creates the potential for an unwelcome conflict. After all, what if the media client wants to release numbers that are unfavorable to the candidate client?
For that reason, pollsters will often work with only one type of client on a particular race, but evidently, POS either had no such agreement in this case, or Young just didn't object to any of the data POS prepared for Howey and WTHR. It's also worth noting that Howey's decision to hire a partisan pollster from just one side of the aisle is a departure from its past practices. In 2012, for instance, Howey tapped a Republican pollster and a Democratic pollster to jointly conduct its surveys, something nonpartisan media outlets often do to avoid any appearance of partisan favoritism.
As for the gubernatorial race, the few surveys we've seen have usually favored Gregg, though again, we have little to work with. It's worth noting that, after a mid-October poll from Monmouth showed Gregg up 50-38, Holcomb's team dropped a BK Strategies poll showing a 42-42 tie. A more recent Monmouth poll found Gregg's lead dropping to 48-42, but we haven't seen anything new from Holcomb's campaign here. With the limited data available, there's not much we can say beyond the fact that both the Senate and governor's race are closely contested, and that Gregg may have a better shot than Bayh. We'll know for sure very soon.
● NH-Sen: Some political developments can be read in multiple ways, but sometimes, they say just one thing. Case in point: Whenever your campaign tries to tie itself to the other party's presidential candidate, that's not a sign of confidence. We saw this at its most laughable not long ago when ultra-partisan GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, suddenly vulnerable this year, sent out mailers positively featuring Barack Obama; the president called it "the definition of chutzpah."
Now we have another contender for the chutzpah crown. Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is running Facebook ads featuring Chelsea Clinton, who was in New Hampshire Friday to stump for her mother. ("Going to see Chelsea Clinton today? Click here!" say the ads—as though Ayotte's gonna help you score tickets.) While some recent polls have shown Donald Trump improving his position in the Granite State, it certainly seems like Ayotte thinks she needs to earn the support of some Clinton voters to survive. That's definitely not an ideal place to be. Good luck winning over those Chelsea fans!
● Polls: While reading these, just remember: The only poll that matters is on National Cappuccino Day.
● AZ-Sen: Marist: 55-39 McCain (R-inc) (45-40 Trump)
● AZ-Sen: Data Orbital: 52-41 McCain (R-inc) (47-39 Trump)
● MO-Sen: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 46-44 Blunt (R-inc) (52-41 Trump)
● NC-Sen: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 48-45 Burr (R-inc) (49-47 Clinton)
● NH-Sen: Abt SRBI for UMass Lowell: 47-46 Hassan (D) (44-44 presidential tie)
● NH-Sen: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 48-45 Hassan (48-43 Clinton)
● NH-Gov: Abt SRBI for UMass Lowell: 47-43 Sununu (R) (44-44 presidential tie)
● NH-Gov: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 47-44 Van Ostern (D) (48-43 Clinton)
● NV-Sen: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 47-44 Cortez Masto (D) (48-45 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: PPP (D) for Center for American Progress: 46-44 McGinty (D) (48-44 Clinton)
● PA-Sen: Harper Polling (R): 44-44 Senate tie (46-46 presidential tie)
House:
● IN-09: In addition to their statewide survey for Howey Politics and local TV station WTHR (see our IN-Sen, IN-Gov item above) the GOP pollster Public Opinion Strategies also takes a look at the race for the open 9th District. They give Republican Trey Hollingsworth a small 44-42 lead over Democrat Shelli Yoder; Democrats have released polls showing a tie or a small Hollingsworth edge. Presidential numbers were not included in the release. The sample size for the 9th was 310 respondents, which is just over the 300 threshold that we consider minimally acceptable.
Romney won this seat 57-41, but both parties started spending heavily here in the final weeks of the race. Hollingsworth infamously only moved to Indiana from Tennessee in 2015 just as he was launching his congressional campaign, and Yoder and her allies haven't hesitated to attack him for it. On Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that, for business reasons, Hollingsworth was legally required to simultaneously reside in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio—but not Indiana. While Hollingsworth blamed this on a clerical error, he told the AP that he'd "have to go back and look" to find out all the places he'd lived in over his 33 years. This seat is red enough that even a flawed Republican like Hollingsworth is probably favored, but both parties are behaving like a Yoder upset is very possible.
● NY-22: Siena takes another look at the three-way race for this open Utica seat. They give Republican Claudia Tenney a 38-34 lead over Democrat Kim Myers, with wealthy independent Martin Babinec at 16. While Romney won this seat by less than half of a percentage point, they have Donald Trump up by a solid 46-32 margin. One month ago, Siena had Tenney leading Myers by a similar 35-30, while Babinec took a larger 24 percent, and Trump led 46-35.
While Babinec's commercials have mostly portrayed him as a non-ideological businessman, he's pledged to caucus with the GOP if he wins. Republicans have aired ads attacking both him and Myers, while Democratic spots have subtly tried to persuade conservatives to switch from Tenney to him. Back in October, Siena found Babinec winning an almost equal proportion of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, but that's changed a bit. This time they have Babinec grabbing 22 percent of independents, 18 percent of Republicans, and 13 percent of Democrats.
Grab Bag:
● Polling: Stephen Wolf investigates the factors that could potentially cause 2016 polling to be systematically wrong. As long-time elections watchers will remember, most polls overestimated Democrats in 2014 and underestimated them in 2012. Wolf examines some of the statistical and methodological reasons for why polling could be inaccurate this year, such as sampling, demographic weighting, and how partisans are more likely to answer surveys when they are feeling energized about their preferred candidate. He also covers a few scenarios that might cause polling errors to the benefit of one particular party, like possible shy Trump voters or Clinton's far superior turnout operation.
● Site Contests: It's that time of year again: The Daily Kos Elections Predictions Contest is back! And this year, we're thrilled to announce that the highly revered Green's Bakery has generously donated the prize: a gift basket of assorted delights, including (of course), a luscious chocolate babka! Head over here for more details, and be sure to get your entries in by 5pm ET on November 8. Now go and earn that babka! And good luck!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.