Final numbers on this fine, glorious election day:
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
11/8 |
11/7 |
11/2 |
10/19 |
10/14 |
US |
C+5.2 |
C+5.2 |
C+5.2 |
C+8.2 |
C+8.4 |
AZ (11) |
T+1.3 |
T+3.2 |
T+1.0 |
C+1.8 |
T+0.1 |
CO (9) |
C+4.4 |
C+3.5 |
C+4.6 |
C+6.6 |
C+6.1 |
FL (29) |
C+1.6 |
C+0.2 |
C+1.4 |
C+4.5 |
C+4.2 |
GA (16) |
T+2.2 |
T+3.8 |
T+2.4 |
C+0.1 |
T+0.2 |
IA (6) |
T+4.3 |
T+4.3 |
T+3.1 |
C+1.1 |
T+0.4 |
MI (16) |
C+6.5 |
C+6.0 |
C+8.5 |
|
|
NV (6) |
C+1.4 |
T+0.5 |
C+0.7 |
C+2.7 |
C+2.1 |
NH (4) |
C+4.8 |
C+2.7 |
C+5.7 |
C+6.8 |
C+6.4 |
NC (15) |
C+1.6 |
T+0.5 |
C+1.6 |
C+3.1 |
C+2.6 |
OH (18) |
T+1.6 |
T+1.8 |
T+1.3 |
C+1.7 |
C+2.0 |
PA (20) |
C+4.6 |
C+3.8 |
C+4.8 |
C+7.7 |
C+7.4 |
WI (10) |
C+5.1 |
C+4.9 |
C+6.0 |
C+8.1 |
C+7.9 |
The last crush of polling yesterday was (other than Iowa) universally good for Clinton, with the last vestiges of the James Comey letter fading away. Remember, the state-level polling is a lagging indicator, as there are more immediate national tracking polls. That’s why the national numbers have stabilized, and the state ones are still moving.
Two big questions:
1. Are those state numbers sitting at their final resting place, or would polls conducted today show continued gains for Clinton? Remember, most of those results were taken over the weekend, and there has been a fair amount of movement over the last 10 days. Now “fair amount of movement” is relative, and translates to just a handful of points. But a couple of points is the difference between Clinton picking up Arizona and Georgia, and holding on to Ohio.
2. Will Clinton’s rebound also lift Democrats in key Senate battlegrounds? That’s where the drama lies as the day unfolds. At the top of the ticket, we’re shattering one hell of a glass ceiling tonight. Finish strong and bring those downballot seats home!