Donald Trump, economic populist. We’ve heard a lot about the concept. But what will the policy reality be?
There’s a lot we don't know. Trump’s own policy statements have been confused and contradictory at many points, and we don’t know how much he meant any of them, to what degree he’ll expect to get his own way, and to what degree he’ll serve as a rubber stamp for a Republican Congress. But we know enough that if you’re not already feeling physically sick, thinking about them should remedy that. There’s Obamacare repeal, of course, which will take health coverage away from more than 20 million people. But there's more. Will Trump actually enter a trade war with China? We don’t know, but he could!
One of Donald Trump’s most consistent promises is to impose massive tariffs on goods from other countries, including a tariff of up to 45 percent on goods from China, and up to 35 percent on goods from Mexico. He might face some resistance from Republicans in Congress on this point, but luckily for him, the president has a surprising amount of authority to unilaterally impose duties, by bringing "safeguard" or "market disruption" cases against imports from China or Mexico.
Trade policy needs a lot of progressive fixes, but Trump trying to show that he’s a tough guy who won’t “lose” to China and Mexico is not that.
Then there’s tax policy, an area where, Dylan Matthews writes, Trump has taken cues from House Speaker Paul Ryan. Under Trump’s plan:
NYU Law’s Lily Batchelder conservatively estimates that 25 million individuals and 15 million children would see their taxes go up under Trump’s plan. That's about 20 percent of households with minor children at home, and includes more than half of all single parents. The combination of an increased bottom rate, Trump's total elimination of personal exemptions for taxpayers and dependents, and his abolishing of "head of household" filing status, often used by single parents or single caretakers, leaves many people in the middle class worse off.
Corporations and investors would get big cuts, by contrast. But speaking of Paul Ryan, he’s a man with a plan. You remember the one—ending Medicare as we know it, slashing food stamps and Medicaid, and so much more. Well, Ryan can get it through the House, and if Senate Republicans kill the filibuster, it might get to Donald Trump’s desk. Who wants to make a big bet on Trump doing anything other than signing it?
To sum up: Disaster, disaster, and more disaster for working-class, and for that matter, middle-class families.