With a few notable exceptions the Democratic Party has suffered catastrophic defeats in most elections for the last 22 years (since 1994). This is part of a larger pattern that illustrates the rift we currently have within our party. Here is how we overcome this, reunite with a bold new vision, and start to actually win again.
The two predominant philosophies in the Democratic Party consist of: 1. The people in this nation has shifted to the right, we have gone too far to the left, we need to shift to the right to appeal to more centrists.
2. While the dominant political discussions have shifted to the right, Americans continue to be progressive on most issues, we have gone too far to the right, we need to shift back to the left to fight for progress.
I am firmly in the #2 camp. I have fought in the trenches in deep red areas for bold progress for many years. This is a fight I absolutely know we can win when we are united. But to make this happen, we have to stop bottling up our efforts into GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in blue strongholds, particularly big cities. We absolutely need to fight in all 50 states and all 3000+ counties, even the ones where conservative Republicans often win by 4:1 margins.
According to philosophy #1, we need to run conservative Democrats in these disadvantaged districts, because it’s a matter of stopping an even worse conservative Republican from getting the seat. The only thing that does is make the district turn more and more red every election cycle. People need to hear the progressive side of things, and I can attest to the fact that while there may be some very strong disagreements (I’ve had someone threaten to pull their sidearm on me once for instance), fighting for progress starts to turn things in our direction.
The Bernie Sanders Model_______________
Democrats really screwed the pooch by tilting the scales in favor of a candidate that was widely perceived as an establishment insider during what was clearly an anti-establishment election cycle. It wasn’t just Bernie Sanders, it was his engaging model of activism and his ability to bring the fight to the doors of our opponents in every district that was lost.
While attendance size at rallies does not necessarily indicate who will win a state, it is an accurate measure of a very key and often overlooked factor in elections: enthusiasm. Bernie had it, and his crowds dwarfed Trump. These folks are likely to donate, volunteer, and actually fight to convince people they know.
Another reason why enthusiasm is important is because it results in election results higher than what the polls predicted. Trump had an enthusiasm edge over Clinton (like #Brexit), leading to higher than expected results from what the polls stated. Bernie Sanders was doing even better than the polls predicted due to his exceptionally enthusiastic supporters. In fact, 538 even had some states like New Hampshire listed as 85% in the Clinton column until very shortly before the election. In nearly every election, both in the primary and in history, Bernie did better than the polls said he would. That’s what bold progressive stances can bring.
The chart here shows how enthusiasm affects turnout. In states where Bernie Sanders was winning, turnout was still down a bit in most cases from the 2008 primary results, but only by 7%. In many states turnout actually exceeded Obama’s inspired wave, and there was some voter suppression in other states like Rhode Island in 2016. In many states that were closest, the high voter turnout was due to the Bernie bump. GOTV isn’t just about harassing people on the phone to vote, it’s about inspiring them to actually vote, and donate, and to volunteer, and talk to their friends, neighbors, coworkers, and relatives.
Another overlooked factor is favorability. Although there are exceptions, including this year, the candidate with the highest net favorability ratings usually wins the election. Bernie was well liked by voters, even those that disagreed with some of his stances.
The ability to appeal to voters outside big cities is critical. Outside the South and parts of the Southwest, the democratic socialist Bernie Sanders was cleaning up in non-metro areas. Considering how the electoral college, Senate, and House is all gerrymandered to give an edge to less populated rural voters, we NEED to compete in these areas.
All of this added up to Bernie Sanders polling about 10% better than Clinton in match ups of likely voters. Bernie Sanders and bold progressives were competing in areas where Clinton simply could not.
The reason why I’m pointing out these facts is not to say “I told you so” but rather as a reminder that we have two paths in front of us right now, and I’m seriously worried that we have not learned the lessons we needed to from 2010, 2014, and 2016. We cannot allow any more watered down pseudo reforms. We must have a very serious shakeup of our leadership, including ousting those with ties to big banks, major corporations, and Wall Street like Chuck Schumer.
The Republican Party now dominates the Presidency, both chambers of Congress, one party control of 33 (2/3rds) of both chambers of state legislatures, 33 (2/3rds) of governorships, and the Supreme and Federal Courts. Democrats only control 13 of the state legislatures (1/4) and 18 governorships (just over 1/3rd). Republicans now own everything.
We are in very serious danger of becoming a permanent minority party if we don’t seriously alter course and restore New Deal, anti-corporate policies that regular folks can relate to.
Democrats are only 32% of eligible voters, Republicans 27%, and independents 36% according to the latest poll by Gallup. We cannot be so short sighted as to ignore independents, and scorn third party voters, and not even try to inspire that third to half of eligible voters that never vote. It is absolutely critical that moving forward we stand united for a NEW New Deal.