We’re in uncharted territory. One distinct outcome of the Electoral College vote on December 19 is to send the election to the Congress.
Conventional wisdom is that Congress is controlled by Republicans, and so Trump will automatically win.
This wisdom is flawed for two reasons:
- The House will vote for President by state delegation. Meaning somehow, Representatives within a state will have to agree on a vote.
- There has been significant anti-Trump sentiment by many in the GOP this election, and events aren’t assuaging most of those concerns.
There are many forces that come into play here. What kinds of legislative or policy deals could be made? Would a Hardcore Trumper find a moderate Republican (likely 3rd highest vote total in the Electoral College) acceptable, or would they stick with Trump? What obligations would they feel to the popular vote in their state or the electoral vote in their state?
To look into this, I’ve been looking into the feelings about Trump among all of the members of the House of Representatives who might be deciding this election. I’m going alphabetically, but I’ve already made some interesting, and promising, observations.
I’ve been scoring Trump support as “Hardcore”, “Grudging”, “Neutral”, “Troubled”, and “Never”. Hardcore and Grudging indicates they likely voted Trump; Troubled and Never that they likely did not vote Trump.
Most of the public objections came after the infamous Access Hollywood tape. I feel that is a good barometer for how likely one is to be willing to go with a different choice.
Alabama has 2 hardcore, 3 grudging, 1 neutral, 1 troubled, and 1 never.
Alaska has 1 neutral vote.
Arkansas has 3 hardcore and 1 grudging.
Arizona has 4 hardcore, 1 grudging, and 4 never.
California has 12 hardcore, 1 grudging, 1 troubled, and 40 never.
Colorado has 3 grudging, 1 troubled, and 3 never.
Connecticut has 5 never.
Delaware has 1 never.
Florida has 8 hardcore, 3 grudging, 1 troubled, and 15 never.
Georgia has 6 hardcore, 3 grudging, 4 never.
Hawaii has 2 never.
Idaho has 1 hardcore and 1 never.
Notice some interesting observations here. Alaska, a red state, could potentially go either way. Alabama and Georgia could both be swing states, if its grudging members could be lobbied and convinced. Idaho is crazy because it has two polar opposites, which would force a compromise choice. Florida, despite losing in the EC, would likely vote against Trump.
I’ll continue my work over the weekend to complete the list, and then share my document for feedback and other information—or perhaps it will help in case we need to target lobbying efforts.
And obviously none of this accounts for the reaction to yesterday’s explosive news, and Trump’s hard-to-fathom response.
There may yet be hope. Keep fighting.