I thought it would be interesting to compare 2004 to 2016, as a pre and post-Obama look at the electoral landscape. The immediate 2012-2016 trend shows a total collapse in white rural America, but this trend is lessened if you go back to 2004, where Bush in his re-election hit massive numbers in white rural areas, and almost won the upper midwest states that narrowly gave Trump his shocking electoral college victory. It was easy for Bush to frame himself as the defender of traditional values against the “liberal elitist” Massachusetts senator, especially after three straight elections in which Democrats had nominated moderate white Southerners. The white rural backlash against Bush and the ensuing shift to Obama in 2008 is often forgotten.
Outside of the Blue Dog corridor which swung hard to McCain (East Oklahoma and East Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, rural Tennessee, northern Alabama, East Kentucky, SW Virginia, West Virginia, SE Ohio, SW Pennsylvania) there was a massive shift in white rural counties towards Obama. It is hard to find more than a handful of counties in the Rocky Mountain states or the Upper Midwest that didn’t trend hard towards Democrats that year. A lot of those gains were given up in 2012 as some of the counties that had shifted the hardest to Obama were those to bounce back the fastest, but still it seems Romney had difficulty sealing the deal with these voters. It wasn’t until Trump that Republicans again had someone who approached the level of (*deep sigh*) personal connection to white rural America that Bush had. So setting aside Obama’s comparatively respectable performances in these areas, we will look at the last time we got blown out with what Sarah Palin would call “Real America”, and see where we are now, and where we are heading.
I’ll start with Colorado, 2004 to 2016, looking at certain counties individually and others in groups that seem to make sense. I am directly comparing net vote margins instead of percentages, to better show the effect of uneven population growth on our vote totals (quick hint: the I-25 corridor has grown massively while the rest of the state is pretty flat).
Denver (Dark blue): Has grown rapidly over the past decade, and even more hostile to Republicans. Mirrors other urban centers where GOP fortunes have plummeted.
Metro Area (Light cyan): The four suburban counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, Adams, and Broomfield. Has gone from GOP-leaning to decidedly to the left of the state. Much more diverse than in decades past, particularly the city of Aurora.
El Paso County (Dark red): Retiree and military-heavy, has a reputation as a conservative, very religious population center to counter the Denver metro, but there are a significant number of black and Hispanic voters in downtown and southern Colorado Springs.
Boulder (Green): Boulder, ‘nuff said. Very liberal and only getting more incompatible with the modern GOP.
Douglas County (Dark Orange): One of the fastest growing counties of the past few decades, includes Castle Rock and the exurbs of the Denver metro. Solidly Republican, but Democrats are managing to keep up as it grows.
Larimer County (Purple): Liberal college town of Fort Collins plus light-red exurbs and small towns. Used to be a bellwether for the state at large, but has been shifting further our way.
Weld County (Light Orange): With a heavy reliance on the extraction industry, has been Republican and stayed that way as it grows quickly. Greeley has a significant number of Hispanic people, but the rest of the county is quite red and getting more so.
South Colorado (Brown): Historically the most Democratic part of Colorado outside of Denver, working class and nearly half Hispanic residents (long established and not from recent immigration). Anchored by Pueblo, held out for candidates like McGovern and Mondale in the face of GOP landslides (1972 and 1984), but has recently become more swingy as Republicans have started to pull large margins among white rural voters.
Mesa County (Pink): Grand Junction and surrounding areas. The GOP base of western Colorado. Not growing very quickly, but perhaps getting redder.
East Rurals (Red): Much fewer Hispanic people than South Colorado, has more in common with ultra-GOP western Kansas which it borders. Declining population, but Republicans can count on absurd margins from the people who remain.
West Rural (Gray): Also very white, but considerably less Republican than the eastern rurals. Still provides a solid boost to GOP numbers statewide.
Ski Country (Blue): Colorado’s unique and booming tourism industry has attracted many liberal-minded people to the mountain towns over the decades. Has a lot more in common with Boulder than the other rural counties in the western part of the state. The shifts here in our favor help counter the trend in the rest of western Colorado.
Colorado 2004-2016: Democratic vote margins
|
2004 |
2016 |
Change |
Denver |
+96.2K |
+181.9K |
GAINED 85.6K |
Metro Area |
-21.2K |
+87.3K |
GAINED 108.4K |
El paso county |
-83.7K |
-71.2K |
GAINED 12.5K |
boulder county |
+54.0K |
+90.9K |
GAINED 37.0K |
Douglas county |
-41.0K |
-33.9K |
GAINED 7.1K |
larimer county |
-7.6K |
+9.7K |
GAINED 17.3K |
weld county |
-23.7K |
-30.1K |
LOST 6.4K |
South ColORADO |
+3.8K |
-2.0K |
LOST 5.8K |
mesa county |
-22.0K |
-28.1K |
LOST 6.1K |
east rurals |
-41.3K |
-55.9K |
LOST 14.7K |
WEST RURALS |
-25.0K |
-34.5K |
LOST 9.5K |
SKI COUNTRY |
+11.9K |
+22.3K |
GAINED 10.4K |
state total |
-99.5K |
+136.4K |
GAINED 235.9K |
So that’s the story of Colorado from 2004 to 2016. A state John Kerry lost by almost 100K votes became one which Hillary Clinton won by 136K. We gave up some ground in the rural areas of the state, but more than made up for that by holding steady in the major GOP population centers, and winning previously unthinkable margins in the rapidly growing Denver/Boulder metro area. This realignment amounts to one of undeniable success for Colorado Democrats, but the story is not the same elsewhere in the country...