When does a primary candidate decide to drop out? I have given it some thought and come up with the following analysis of last night’s results in New Hampshire. The takeaway is that if you are last in your group, then there is very little reason to stay in the race. The question is how you define your group as there are several overlapping categories - I even made a chart!
It seems that executive experience is starting to appeal to Republican voters over legislative experience. Having a last name that is NOT Bush is better than being a Bush. However, in the end, if you’re a total asshole, then you have a better shot than any other category…so far. We’ll see how long that lasts.
(NOTE — The operative definition for 'total asshole' here is one where the majority of the people from your own party wouldn't hesitate to agree with that characterization. If you or I think Cruz is an asshole, that's to be expected. If Bob Dole comes out of retirement to call Cruz an asshole, then there's something deeper going on there.)
My bet is that this becomes a 2-3 person race before Super Tuesday. Those three? Trump and Kasich, and maybe Bush (f he thinks he can overtake Kasich eventually).
Just Drop Out Already
Carson and Fiorina (both No Experience, Not a Bush) – Last among those in the ‘No Experience’ category. Trump has that vote locked up. UPDATE — Fiorina is out
Christie (Executive Experience, Total Asshole, Not a Bush) – Last place among the ‘Total Assholes’ and among those with ‘Executive Experience’. Probably dropping out today. UPDATE — He did.
Needs to Step Up His Game Immediately
Rubio (Legislative Experience, Not a Bush) – Came in last among the ‘Legislative Experience’ crowd. I think he’s done, and Nevada and/or South Carolina will provide the nails in his coffin. The only reason he’s not leaving today is his showing in Iowa.
Needs a Win (or another win) in His Group
Bush (Executive Experience) – He improved on his performance in Iowa and beat Rubio, but Kasich lapped him. If he doesn’t soon solidify his position as the candidate with Executive Experience, then he’s done.
Cruz (Legislative Experience, Total Asshole, Not a Bush) – Barely secured third place in New Hampshire. Needs to beat Trump in Nevada and South Carolina in order to secure the angry Republican voter that wants a “Total Asshole”. Another loss or two to Trump and he’s history.
Top o’ the Heap
Trump (No Experience, Total Asshole, Not a Bush) – He’s strong, but it remains to be seen if he can he win the nomination when all but one of the other establishment candidates drop out.
Kasich (Legislative and Executive Experience, Not a Bush) – He makes a lot of sense as the establishment alternative to Trump. I also think, once voters get to know him, he might even have a chance to win the White House if he wins the nomination.