On Thursday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee rolled out the first round of its "Red to Blue" program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. There are a number of interesting things about the full list, which is broken in to two tiers, "Red to Blue" and "Emerging Races," with the latter essentially serving as the farm team for the former.
First up, Red to Blue:
- CA-24: Salud Carbajal
- CO-06: Morgan Carroll
- FL-10: Val Demings
- FL-18: Randy Perkins
- FL-26: Annette Taddeo
- IA-01: Monica Vernon
- IL-10: Brad Schneider
- ME-02: Emily Cain
- MI-01: Lon Johnson
- MI-07: Gretchen Driskell
- MN-02: Angie Craig
- NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
- NV-03: Jacky Rosen
- TX-23: Pete Gallego
- UT-04: Doug Owens
- VA-10: LuAnn Bennett
Many of these races feature contested primaries, but the D-Trip isn't hesitating to pick sides. That group includes CA-24, FL-10, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01, IL-10, and MI-01, and possibly CO-06 as well. You'll also notice that a couple of districts are seats the party isn't actually trying to turn from red to blue but rather is trying to hold, CA-24 and FL-18.
In addition, the D-Trip has also named several districts to Red to Blue without expressing any preference for a particular contender: FL-13, NV-04, NY-01, NY-24, and PA-08. FL-13 is almost shocking: They really aren't comfortable putting their thumb on the scale for Charlie Crist over Eric Lynn, a former Defense Dept. official, even though Crist’s name recognition makes him the heavy favorite in the primary. But while the DCCC isn’t usually deterred when one candidate has some local support, Lynn has in his corner St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, who is very prominent.
The rest are notable as well, because at least one candidate in each contest has earned some favorable notice from the national establishment: Harry Reid's backing Ruben Kihuen in NV-04; Steve Israel's for Anna Throne-Holst in NY-01; Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer are behind Colleen Deacon in NY-24; and EMILY's List and Gillibrand have endorsed Shaughnessy Naughton in PA-08. It once again goes to show that the "establishment" is no monolithic thing.
Then we have the Emerging Races:
- AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran
- CA-10: Michael Eggman
- MI-08: Melissa Gilbert
- MT-AL: Denise Juneau
- NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter
- NY-23: John Plumb
- PA-07: Bill Golderer
- WV-02: Cory Simpson
AZ-01 is the only defensive hold on this list, and it's a bit concerning to see O'Halleran, a former Republican state senator who recently joined the Democratic Party, only making the second tier, given how tough of a district this is. However, O'Halleran’s fundraising hasn’t been very strong: As of the end of December, he had just $172,000 in the bank.
It's also quite unexpected to see Carol Shea-Porter, a former member of Congress, get relegated as well. CSP has never been a particularly strong fundraiser, but she's won races in the past in spite of that, and New Hampshire's tendency to gyrate wildly puts this seat on the map this year almost no matter what.
Lastly, the DCCC also included a pair of "Emerging Districts," again, without choosing a specific candidate: IA-03 and NY-19. The latter is where law professor Zephyr Teachout recently announced a run, but she also faces Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik. Evidently both have something to prove to the power-brokers in Washington.
There are also several notable districts that didn't make either level of the DCCC's list, the most notable of which are AZ-02, CA-25, IL-12, IN-02, NY-03, NY-21, and PA-06. These are all Republican seats except NY-03, which will be a tricky Democratic hold. In all the rest, Democratic recruiment hasn't been especially strong, and the D-Trip may yet add more races as candidates prove themselves. But AZ-02, for instance, was the closest House race in the nation in 2014. If it's not on the table this fall, that would be extremely disappointing.