Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince and Fowler City Councilman Daniel Parra are both Democrats, and they’ve both been running against potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents since April: Vince is challenging Rep. Steve Knight in the Los Angeles area’s 25th District while Parra is trying to unseat Rep. David Valadao in the 21st, which sits in the San Joaquin Valley. The two candidates share a couple of other things in common as well: They’ve raised very little money, and yet they’re also the favorites of local party activists.
As of Dec. 31, Parra had brought in just $49,000 and Vince only $55,000—sums that are at least an order of magnitude smaller than what any candidate hoping to knock off an incumbent would want to have raised after spending the better part of the year on the campaign trail. Those weak numbers have led DC Democrats to conlude that Vince and Parra can’t win in November, which is why they’ve shown an interest in other options: attorney Bryan Caforio, who’s already raised $138,000 despite only entering the race in December, and attorney Emilio Huerta, who hasn’t yet filed any fundraising reports but brings some name recognition as the son of legendary labor leader Dolores Huerta.
But Caforio and Huerta have most certainly not felt the love from area activists. In the 25th, local Democrats are upset that Caforio only recently moved into the district and are angry at what they perceive to be the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s efforts to “meddle” in the race. One comment sums up the situation well:
"There was a lot of negativity about the new guy. He is a carpetbagger," said Jodie Cooper, the club's executive vice president. "[Vince] really made a concerted effort to meet with people and then all of a sudden this guy comes in with money?"
Meanwhile, in the 21st, activists are upset with the DCCC, too: They say that last cycle, the committee “micro-managed” the unsuccessful campaign of Democrat Amanda Renteria and ignored local input. Never mind that Renteria lost by 16 points and no Democrat was going to beat Valadao in a Republican wave election like 2014, the bitterness still lingers—so much so that Huerta has openly criticized the D-Trip and insists the organization didn’t recruit him to run.
And this split isn’t just fodder for the press—it’s already had some real-world ramifications. Over the weekend, both Parra and Vince overwhelmingly earned so-called “pre-endorsement” votes from local Democratic Party delegates in their respective districts. This support is important for one big reason: The state Democratic Party will hold its convention later this month, where it will vote to officially endorse candidates ahead of the June top-two primary, and those pre-endorsements clear the way for the final nod.
While it may sound like a humble prize, it can actually be a great boon, because candidates who receive formal endorsements have their names included on the party’s official sample ballot that gets distributed to voters. Given the challenges that every campaign faces in just simply communicating with the electorate, getting listed on the sample ballot is almost like having someone send out a free mailer for you to every voter—with the party’s seal of approval, no less.
And indeed, a 2015 academic paper concluded that California candidates with their party’s endorsement performed noticeably better in primaries than contenders who were running in races where no endorsement was issued, even when controlling for candidate quality. For contenders like Vince and Parra, who don’t have much money to spare, it could provide a big boost
It’s important to note, though, that the number of people involved in these pre-endorsement votes is incredibly small: While Parra and Vince both scored over 80 percent support, Parra received only 46 votes and Vince just 41. These activists may speak for others, but given how few people we’re talking about, the extent of a division between local and national Democrats may be over-stated. And while the party’s official endorsement is indeed meaningful, Caforio and perhaps Huerta as well will have establishment support that could make all the difference in the June primary.