What does the future hold for Donald Trump? No one can say, of course: It’s easy to imagine that Marco Rubio, abetted by Jeb Bush’s departure and a lickspittle Beltway press eager to boost the part-time senator from Florida, could see his fortunes rise as we head toward Super Tuesday. But it’s just as easy to imagine that Trump’s superior name recognition and unparalleled ability to generate headlines will propel him to further victories in states where the non-Trump field remains split and his opponents lack the campaign infrastructure they had in earlier contests.
But we can pore over the recent past with much greater clarity, and what it has to say is quite interesting. Here’s one finding in particular, brought to light by Daily Kos contributing editor Taniel, that stands out: After the now-traditional first three states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Trump is doing better than either Mitt Romney or John McCain—the GOP’s last two nominees—at the same juncture.
Candidate |
Total Vote |
Donald Trump |
385,720 |
31.9% |
Mitt Romney |
295,519 |
30.3% |
John McCain |
252,005 |
31.3% |
Republican turnout has been way up this year—by almost a quarter compared to 2012 and by half versus 2008—so that helps explain Trump’s vastly greater vote total. (This doesn’t count Michigan’s unsanctioned early primary in 2008.) But Trump’s share of the overall vote is also higher, and that’s particularly notable because so many more candidates were on the ballot this year in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
This may or may not have any relevance for upcoming contests. After all, it’s possible that Trump has a firm ceiling that’s somewhere around a third of the GOP primary electorate. What's more, many Trump voters are independents who won’t be able to vote in later primaries that are only open to registered Republicans.
Those are undoubtedly comforting thoughts for a GOP establishment that badly prefers Rubio. But right now, The Donald is not only the front-runner: He’s a more dominant front-runner than Romney or McCain was after South Carolina. Super Tuesday, here we come.