Illinois specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 156 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Illinois Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella. Illinois has a large number of delegates.
Basic Data: Illinois has 156 delegates available. (Definitely another delegate rich state). There are 18 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 20 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD8 CD14 CD15 CD18 ::: 5 from CD3 CD4 CD6 CD10 CD11 CD13 CD16 ::: 6 from CD5 CD12 CD17 ::: 7 from CD9 ::: 8 from CD2 ::: 9 from CD1 CD7. State-wide allocations are 20 PLEOs and 34 at-large delegates. With such a large number of statewide delegates this has a potential to give a candidate a bigger boost. Combining that with 10 districts having odd number of delegates, even a small boost would give a candidate definitive delegate advantage.
Primary General Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 15th March 2016. Illinois operates an open primary. Participation is open to all registered voters. Just remember to request the Democratic Party ballot. Neither Party membership nor party registration is needed. Same day voter registration is not available. Voters must have been registered by 15th Feb for primary voting. Illinois is however allowing a “Grace Period” same day registration for people who missed the registration deadline, to do so in person. If you have missed primary registration deadline then there is still time to register and vote at the same time in any of the early voting or primary election day itself. Register and vote early avoid the hassle.
Early voting period runs from Feb 29th to March 12th 2016.
Double Barrel Primary:Presidential primary coincides with local and state primaries. Do not forget your down ballot people. Same goes for the General elections too.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquired
out of available
|
4 DEL
CD8 CD14
CD15 CD18
|
5 del
CD3 CD4
CD6 CD10
CD11 CD13
CD16
|
6 del
CD5 CD12
CD17
|
7 del
CD9
|
8 del
cd2
|
9 del
cd1 cd7
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.5 |
18.8 |
16.7 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.8 |
31.3 |
27.8 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
43.8 |
38.9 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
56.3 |
50 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
68.8 |
61.2 |
7 del |
|
|
|
85 |
81.3 |
72.3 |
8 del |
|
|
|
|
85 |
83.4 |
For 4 Delegates at CD8 CD14 CD15 CD18: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip does indicates not much activity here. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD4 CD 6 CD10 CD11 CD13 CD16: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These seven districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 7 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages.
For 6 Delegates at CD5 CD12 CD17: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD9: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again beautifully balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 8 Delegates at CD2: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. A (5-3) split with 56.3% is still within current levels of possibilities.
For 9 Delegates at CD1 CD7: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in these districts could still trigger an extra delegate. Voter participation in these districts will also skew state-wide results slightly due to the higher Democratic Party leaning population here. Any extra effort here will contribute disproportionately acquiring delegates at CD as well as state-wide results. On a side note both of these districts have less than 40% white population.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 20 PLEOs and 34 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 20 Pledged PLEOs: (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Exactly 5% votes translates to 1 delegate. {Ahh it feels good to for once not have to say roughly blah blah}. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 17.5%. Subsequently every 5% gives an extra delegate. Between 47.5%-52.5% delegates split even (10-10). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 52.5% results in (11-9) split. Only some interesting triggers are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. (Not all triggers are listed). A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
17.5 |
32.5 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
57.5 |
62.5 |
67.5 |
72.5 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers PLEOs
PLEO Del(20) |
3 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
Corresponding
At-Large(34)
|
5 |
6 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
For 34 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 2.9% votes translates to 1 delegate. crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 5 delegates. Sixth delegate is cheap at 16.2%. Subsequently every 2.9% gives an extra delegate. Between 48.6%-51.5% delegates split even (17-17). Once again, a small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. Crossing 51.5% results in (24-22) split. Only some interesting triggers are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. (Not all triggers are listed).
Vote Share % |
15 |
16.2 |
42.7 |
45.6 |
48.6 |
51.5 |
54.5 |
57.4 |
60.3 |
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers - At-Large
At-Large
Del(34)
|
5 |
6 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
Corresponding
PLEOs(20)
|
3 |
3 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
The triggers listed are the range most people seem interested in. Roughly around even split marks and extra delegate advantages just beyond.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the interest will be around the odd delegate awarding districts. With the added boost of local/state primaries taking place at the same time, the turn out would be on higher side. All the 4 delegate districts will break even (2-2). In 5 delegate Districts CD10, CD11, CD16 I expect Bernie Sanders to give it a good contest and break them in his favour (3-2). CD13 maybe there Bernie advantage too. In 6 delegate districts CD5 and CD12 I would imagine they would break even. But inCD17 I expect Clinton to have an advantage of (4-2). Similarly in 7 Delegate CD9 Clinton advantage (4-3). In 8 delegate CD2 (5-3) and 9 delegates CD1 and CD7 (6-3).
Statewide of around 57.5% causing a (20-14) at-large and (11-9) PLEOs. All total for state splitting Clinton 93 — Sanders 63
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today shout outs to https://ballotpedia.org/Main_Page and Angela Marx and http://www.dailykos.com/blogs/Virginia Kos
{PS. IF anyone has the location address for Northern Mariana Caucus location, could you perhaps give us a shout. A bit stuck with publishing without location}