Alaska specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 16 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Alaska Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Alaska has 16 delegates available. There is just 1 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 3 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in category are as follows: 10 from CD1; Additionally 2 PLEOs and 4 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. Effectively same voting results will be used in three different calculation/categories to allocate delegates.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 26th March 2016. Alaska operates a closed caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default. Party affiliation can be changed on the day of the caucus at the door.
Alaska operates a two-tier caucus process. Delegates are elected first at Alaska State House district levels which elect delegates to party state convention. Boroughs(/Counties) that fall into multiple house districts will divide according to House district boundaries and participate in associated House district caucus. (Even though it might still be in same location).
More information available at: http://www.alaskademocrats.org/caucus-locations and at: http://www.alaskademocrats.org/how-to-caucus/
Voter ID Laws: {Currently inconclusive about what ID is needed for caucus organized by the Democratic party. If changing affiliation or registering to vote, then normal ID for registration will be required. — Anyone able to shed lights would be appreciated.}
For elections on election day itself in Alaska normally valid Voter ID is required for voting. Acceptable forms of ID are, voter ID card, driver's license, state ID card, or military ID card; passport, hunting or fishing license; or other current or valid photo identification. Additionally the following are also accepted if preceding items not available, current utility bill or pay check; government check or bank statement; or other government issued document.
More information at https://www.elections.alaska.gov/vi_hv_vote_polls.php
A provisional (aka questioned ballot) may be cast if ID not available. So if in doubt turn up and vote.
Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. Due to small number of delegates and a single result being used for all allocation, the table below lists all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category.
Vote Share% |
15 |
25 |
35 |
37.5 |
45 |
55 |
62.5 |
65 |
75 |
85 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers
District (10Del) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
At-Large (4del) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
PLEO (2Del) |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
For 10 Delegates at Congressional District: The first two delegates are very cheap to acquire with just 15% votes. Each subsequent 10% vote share gives an extra delegate. At 85% share all 10 are awarded. Between 45% to 55% delegates split evenly (5-5).
For 4 Delegates Statewide (At-Large): The first delegate costs only 15%. Second delegate requires 37.5% between 37.5% and 62.5% the allocations split evenly (2-2). Crossing the 62.5% trigger will award delegate advantage here.
For 2 PLEOs: The first is cheap at 25% however the second one costs a whopping 75% votes. Without a total collapse of a campaign most likely split is (1-1).
When we combine the triggers for all allocations, some of the triggers are identical for multiple categories. For the shared triggers, Crossing 15% results in overall 3 delegates, crossing 25% awards 5 delegates, crossing 75% 13 delegates and 85% awards all 16 delegates.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Despite its association as Palinasia, the state is a battleground state for the state election and federal election purposes. A jolt of organizational support from National Party would probably be enough to bring big changes to Alaska politics, especially given the climate change impacts on population centres.
Despite Sanders supposed advantages in caucuses, I expect Clinton to safely break above 62.5% getting at least (Clinton 10 — Sanders 6) or better delegate split.
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker that go with these series of stories, which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs to Kossacks evcoren and social democrat.
Big oodles of thank you to all the mathematicians.
Currently I am running through the list of states in chronological order. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.