This fall, Americans will vote in an exciting and close presidential race that has already dominated the news for the better part of a year. However, many other countries are holding national elections in 2016, with consequences for hundreds of millions of people that make them worth following, too. Daily Kos Elections is therefore pleased to present the inaugural edition of our International Elections Digest, which we'll be publishing once a month.
While every nation's politics differ, of course, and what might look like the political left in one country could be the center or even the right in another, there are still broad themes and patterns that you'll find the world over. And for progressives concerned about the future of our civilization and our planet, there are many reasons to tune in to the international scene. Labour's disappointing loss in the United Kingdom last year, for instance, was a big blow to the left, but just months later in Canada, the centrist Liberals threw off a decade of Conservative rule. These sorts of developments can have a big impact on global issues such as climate change, income inequality, trade, and diplomacy, which is why we'll be tracking them closely.
Our focus is on national elections in countries whose elections are, by and large, free and fair, such as France or India, though we may sometimes delve deeper into regional or provincial races that are especially important or interesting. We're also including some states whose electoral practices don't conform to traditional democratic norms but where, nevertheless, election outcomes are uncertain and can have an impact on how power is distributed and exercised. That means we'll cover elections in countries such as Venezuela or Iran, but not in nations with entirely un-free sham elections, like Russia.
Join us as we recap elections from around the world that just concluded last month—and look ahead to those in store for February. Countries are organized by geographic region, and there's a calendar of races coming up later this year included at the end.
Asia
● Taiwan – president and legislature (Jan. 16)
Taiwan's recent election saw a historic victory for the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a centrist to center-left party whose platform calls for official independence from mainland China. That position contrasts with that of the right-of-center Kuomintang (KMT), which has governed Taiwan almost without interruption since nationalist forces lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949 and retreated to the island. Together with the government in Beijing, the KMT has sought closer ties between the mainland and Taiwan, and both espouse the 1992 consensus idea of a "One China" policy with an eventual desire for unification.
DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen won a 56 to 31 percent landslide over the KMT to become Taiwan's first-ever female president, after losing a close 52-46 race in 2012. For the first time ever, the DPP also wrested control of the legislature away from the KMT, which ruled Taiwan as an authoritarian state until democratic reforms in the 1990s and has only lost two presidential elections since. Taiwan's legislature is elected using a mix of plurality-winner single-member districts tied to specific geographies (similar to U.S. House districts) and proportional representation based on a party list system. To win any of the proportionally awarded seats, political parties need to earn at least 5 percent of the total nationwide vote. (This concept, which is very common abroad, is known as a threshold and helps keeps very small parties from entering the legislature; you'll see it mentioned regularly in future Digests.)
DPP's unprecedented control over both the executive and legislature will enable it to enact much more of its domestic agenda than on the one previous occasion it held the presidency, from 2001 to 2008. (During that period, the KMT-controlled legislature thwarted much of then-President Chen Shui-bian's policy proposals—sound familiar?) Notably, President-elect Tsai has indicated she will not seek to disrupt the status quo with China by declaring formal independence, something China has even threatened to stop with military action, as both sides historically lay claim to governing all of greater China. (Tsai's careful parsing on this foremost of issues helped quell concerns that a DPP victory would escalate tensions with China and likely boosted her party's fortunes.)
Instead, Tsai says she'll focus on domestic issues and economic ties with the mainland. A souring domestic economy with stagnant wages, increasing housing costs, and high youth unemployment drove much of the dramatic voter swing towards the DPP. Voters were also concerned that the KMT's push for increased economic ties with China would lead to increased political ties and creeping Chinese control over public life in Taiwan. Younger Taiwanese citizens in particular are far more likely to ascribe to the ideal of a Taiwanese identity distinct from mainland China.
These concerns led to a record landslide loss for the KMT. One survey showed that while the party won 31 percent overall—a miserable showing—it received an even worse 9 percent among voters aged 20-39, demonstrating the changing course of Taiwanese politics. While it draws much of its support from the working class, the incoming DPP is not a true social democratic or labor party as one finds in much of Europe, but balances free-market economic liberalism with some support for social welfare. The DPP's platform also includes a firm commitment to civil liberties and social liberalism. All told, this election is an exciting victory for progressive forces in Taiwan and marks a modest shift in China-Taiwan relations that should be unlikely to become a threatening source of conflict for the U.S.
Europe
● Ireland – parliament (Feb. 26)
Irish parliamentary elections are expected to be contested by four major political parties, including one that you find in many countries and three that trace their history back to the struggle for independence in the early part of the 20th century. The center-left Irish Labour Party is a social democratic party in line with many others in Western Europe. Fine Gael supported the 1921 Anglo-Irish treaty that created the Irish Free State but also left Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom. Sinn Fein, which runs in Northern Ireland elections as well, resisted the treaty and continues to oppose a divided Ireland to this day. Finally, Fianna Fail split off from Sinn Fein in 1926 when it decided to accept the political landscape created by the 1921 treaty rather than continue to fight against it.
Sinn Fein has long been seen as a radical-left democratic socialist party, while Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are both centrist to center-right parties, with Fine Gael usually seen as the more conservative of the two. However, Fine Gael has only ever led the government in coalition with the center-left Labour Party, which itself has previously participated in a Fianna Fail government. Thus, traditional left-right divisions are not very useful in Ireland as both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have big tents.
Fine Gael and the Labour Party have run the country for the past five years in coalition, with Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny serving as Taoiseach (prime minister). Fianna Fail, which was the largest single party in the Dáil Éireann (Irish parliament) for 79 consecutive years from 1932-2011, dropped to third behind Fine Gael and Labour in the wake of the financial crisis and Great Recession that hit Ireland particularly hard.
Ireland uses a single transferrable vote system in multi-member seats, but thanks to a low number of seats per district, smaller parties have a tough time breaking into parliament or translating their votes into seats, even if the result is generally proportional among the few biggest parties.
Recent polling shows Fine Gael keeping its position as the largest party, though winning a slightly smaller percentage than it did in 2011 (30 percent versus 36 percent in 2011). Labour has suffered from being the junior coalition partner, as often happens, and has seen its support halved from 2011's record 19 points to a more historically typical 10. Fianna Fail is up slightly over its 2011 result at about 20 percent.
But the big story so far in this election is the rise of Sinn Fein, thanks in large part to its left-wing, anti-austerity stance. The party is polling at around 20 percent, double their 2011 share, which had been the party's best performance since the 1920s by a mile. A smattering of independents and minor parties, many on the radical left, take a non-trivial share in the polls. But again, thanks to the prevailing electoral system, they're unlikely to win many seats and predicting how their second preference support will play out is tricky.
● Portugal – president (Jan. 24)
Crippled by years of economic austerity in the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown and subsequent Eurozone crisis, Portugal took a dramatic turn to the left in its proportionally-elected parliament last fall. An anti-austerity coalition led by the center-left Socialists that includes the two smaller radical-leftist parties ousted the center-right coalition that had implemented unpopular austerity measures.
Portugal's president is largely ceremonial, but maintains some key powers such as the ability to appoint the prime minister and to dissolve parliament for the purpose of calling early elections (as occurred in 2005). Outgoing President Aníbal Cavaco Silva, of the ironically named center-right Social Democratic Party, had attempted to block the new anti-austerity coalition from power due to its inclusion of the anti-Euro Communists and radical Left Bloc, but he relented rather than spark a constitutional crisis that could have left Portugal without an effective government until new elections could be held in June.
The 2016 presidential race saw Marcelo Rebelo de Sousar, also a member of the Social Democratic Party, win 52 percent in the first round, thus avoiding a runoff. Rebelo de Sousar, a former TV pundit with high name recognition, apparently overcame his party's recent governing record on the strength of his personal popularity. It remains to be seen how active a role he'll play in attempting to thwart the policies of the left-leaning legislature without powers equivalent to that in a true presidential system, but he has emphasized a willingness to work with the Socialist-led parliament.
Middle East/North Africa
● Iran – legislature and Assembly of Experts (Feb. 26)
Iran's somewhat free, but rarely fair, legislative elections will likely result in conservatives retaining power despite an electorate that would almost certainly vote in reformists if given the opportunity. Iran will elect the Islamic Consultative Assembly (the Iranian legislature) and the Assembly of Experts, which has no real analog in Western politics. The closest comparison might be the Vatican's College of Cardinals: The Assembly of Experts consists of 88 Mujtahids (Islamic theologians) whose job it is to oversee the supreme leader, which in reality boils down to sitting around and waiting for the opportunity to pick the next supreme leader when the current one dies or resigns.
The current parliament was elected in 2012 in the wake of the failed 2009 Green Revolution, when the vast majority of reformist candidates were disqualified from the ballot, making that election primarily between supporters of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and then-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (both camps are referred to as conservatives or principalists). Khamenei supporters "won" that election, while the reformists took just 13 of 290 seats.
Iran uses a mix of single-member and multi-member districts, where voters can cast as many votes as there are seats in multi-member districts. Winners must receive at least one-third of the vote or the race goes to a runoff. Iran's hard-line Guardian Council once again barred almost all of the reformist candidates from running in this year's elections, but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani—regarded as a "moderate" who sits between the reformists and the conservatives—has appealed to Khamenei to allow more reformist candidates to run, which Khamenei could do.
In early February, some 1,500 candidates were re-instated, but it's not clear how many of those are reformists. Indeed, they remain pessimistic: One analyst described as "close" to the reformists says he expects them to win "at most" 30 seats and says 50 would be a "miracle."
The members of the Assembly of Experts elected this year will serve eight-year terms, giving them a reasonable chance of replacing Khamenei, who is 76 years old. (Technically, they can also dismiss a supreme leader, but yeah.) Assembly candidates have to pass a written and oral exam from the Guardian Council, which embarrassingly in 2006 forced the Council to lower the passing mark to ensure enough candidates. The Assembly's last election took place prior to the Green Revolution, so 29 of the 86 members elected were Reformists. It seems unlikely as many Reformists will be allowed to run this year.
The Assembly is elected with a similar mix of single-member and multi-member districts, though on a larger scale (for example Tehran is one district for the Assembly election and six separate districts in the legislative election).
Sub-Saharan Africa
● Benin – president (Feb. 28)
Benin, a former French colony of 10 million in West Africa, will elect a successor to outgoing President Yayi Boni, with a runoff if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Boni's party, Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin, nominated Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, whom critics have derided as overly loyal to France, where he spent much of his earlier career. Zinsou also has the support of the Democratic Renewal Party, which leads the opposition-controlled National Assembly and whose candidate placed second in the 2011 race for president. Opposition forces are badly divided, and Zinsou stands a strong chance of prevailing in the first round with an outright majority, avoiding the need for a runoff.
● Niger – president and legislature (Feb. 21)
Niger, a former French colony of 17 million people in the Sahara Desert, made headlines in the U.S. after President George W. Bush came under intense fire for claiming in his 2003 State of the Union address that Saddam Hussein had attempted to acquire "significant quantities of uranium from Africa," relying on forged documents alleging that Iraq had tried to buy yellowcake powder from Niger. (This also led to the scandal known as Plamegate.)
Niger's incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou is seeking another term and a runoff will be held if no candidate clears 50 percent in the first round. His center-left Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism only holds a plurality of seats in the proportionally-elected National Assembly but controls the office of the prime minister, with whom the president shares power in Niger's semi-presidential system. The center-right National Movement for the Development of Society and a splinter faction, the pan-Africanist Nigerien Democratic Movement for an African Federation (MNSD-Nassara), are the country's two other major parties, in addition to several other smaller parties.
Niger has been fraught with instability and multiple military coups since independence, with President Issoufou taking power when democratic elections were again restored in 2011. The country is also contending with major security issues after a series of attacks by Islamist groups such as Al Qaeda and Boko Haram. There are concerns over the integrity of the election process and allegations of authoritarianism against President Issoufou's government, which has jailed MNSD-Nassara's candidate, former Prime Minister Hama Amadou, in connection with his alleged role in a baby-smuggling ring.
Upcoming 2016 elections (scheduled or expected):
Australia – legislature (Sept. or Oct.)
Canada (Manitoba) – provincial legislature (April 19)
Canada (Saskatchewan) – provincial legislature (April 4)
Dominican Republic – president and legislature (May 15)
France – presidential primaries (Nov.)
Georgia – parliament (Oct.)
Ghana – president and legislature (Nov. 7)
Lithuania – parliament (Oct. 9)
Macedonia – legislature (April 24)
Mongolia – parliament (June)
Montenegro – legislature (Oct.)
Peru – president and legislature (April 10)
Philippines – president and legislature (May 9)
Romania – parliament (Nov.)
Serbia – parliament (March or April)
Slovakia – legislature (March 5)
South Korea – legislature (April 13)
United Kingdom – regional legislatures (May 5)
Zambia – president and legislature (Sept. 20)
For previews of these races, please check out our 2016 international elections guide.